Abstract

Critical transitions between alternative stable states have been shown to occur across an array of complex systems. While our ability to identify abrupt regime shifts in natural ecosystems has improved, detection of potential early-warning signals previous to such shifts is still very limited. Using real monitoring data of a key ecosystem component, we here apply multiple early-warning indicators in order to assess their ability to forewarn a major ecosystem regime shift in the Central Baltic Sea. We show that some indicators and methods can result in clear early-warning signals, while other methods may have limited utility in ecosystem-based management as they show no or weak potential for early-warning. We therefore propose a multiple method approach for early detection of ecosystem regime shifts in monitoring data that may be useful in informing timely management actions in the face of ecosystem change.

Published in

PLoS ONE
2012, Volume: 7, number: 7, article number: e38410
Publisher: PUBLIC LIBRARY SCIENCE

SLU Authors

• Gårdmark, Anna

  • Department of Aquatic Resources (SLU Aqua), Swedish University of Agricultural Sciences
    

Sustainable Development Goals

Protect, restore and promote sustainable use of terrestrial ecosystems, sustainably manage forests, combat desertification, and halt and reverse land degradation and halt biodiversity loss
Conserve and sustainably use the oceans, seas and marine resources for sustainable development
Take urgent action to combat climate change and its impacts


UKÄ Subject classification

Ecology
Environmental Sciences


Publication identifier

DOI: https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0038410

Permanent link to this page (URI)

https://res.slu.se/id/publ/42718