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Predicting the fate of biodiversity using species' distribution models

enhancing model comparability and repeatability

Hof, Anouschka and Harding, Larisa and Rodriguez-Castaneda, Genoveva and Jansson, Roland (2012). Predicting the fate of biodiversity using species' distribution models. PloS one. 7:9, 1-10
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Official URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0044402

Abstract

Species distribution modeling (SDM) is an increasingly important tool to predict the geographic distribution of species. Even though many problems associated with this method have been highlighted and solutions have been proposed, little has been done to increase comparability among studies. We reviewed recent publications applying SDMs and found that seventy nine percent failed to report methods that ensure comparability among studies, such as disclosing the maximum probability range produced by the models and reporting on the number of species occurrences used. We modeled six species of Falco from northern Europe and demonstrate that model results are altered by (1) spatial bias in species’ occurrence data, (2) differences in the geographic extent of the environmental data, and (3) the effects of transformation of model output to presence/absence data when applying thresholds. Depending on the modeling decisions, forecasts of the future geographic distribution of Falco ranged from range contraction in 80% of the species to no net loss in any species, with the best model predicting no net loss of habitat in Northern Europe. The fact that predictions of range changes in response to climate change in published studies may be influenced by decisions in the modeling process seriously hampers the possibility of making sound management recommendations. Thus, each of the decisions made in generating SDMs should be reported and evaluated to ensure conclusions and policies are based on the biology and ecology of the species being modeled.

Authors/Creators:Hof, Anouschka and Harding, Larisa and Rodriguez-Castaneda, Genoveva and Jansson, Roland
Title:Predicting the fate of biodiversity using species' distribution models
Subtitle:enhancing model comparability and repeatability
Series/Journal:PloS one (1932-6203)
Year of publishing :2012
Volume:7
Number:9
Page range:1-10
Number of Pages:10
Publisher:Public Library of Science
ISSN:1932-6203
Language:English
Publication Type:Journal article
Refereed:Yes
Article category:Scientific peer reviewed
Version:Published version
Full Text Status:Public
Agris subject categories.:F Plant production > F40 Plant ecology
L Animal production > L20 Animal ecology
Subjects:(A) Swedish standard research categories 2011 > 1 Natural sciences > 106 Biological Sciences (Medical to be 3 and Agricultural to be 4) > Ecology
Keywords:species distribution modeling (SDM), distribution of species, environmental data, biodiversity, biology of species, ecology of species
URN:NBN:urn:nbn:se:slu:epsilon-e-1492
Permanent URL:
http://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:slu:epsilon-e-1492
Additional ID:
Type of IDID
Scopus2-s2.0-84866285501
DOI10.1371/journal.pone.0044402
ID Code:10328
Department:(S) > Dept. of Wildlife, Fish and Environmental Studies
Deposited By: SLUpub Connector
Deposited On:14 Jun 2013 11:43
Metadata Last Modified:12 Apr 2015 09:55

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