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Should forests be used as uncertain carbon sinks or uncertain fossil fuel substitutes in the EU Roadmap to 2050?

Elofsson, Katarina and Gren, Ing-Marie (2013). Should forests be used as uncertain carbon sinks or uncertain fossil fuel substitutes in the EU Roadmap to 2050? Uppsala, Sweden: (NL, NJ) > Dept. of Economics, Sveriges lantbruksuniversitet. Working paper series / Swedish University of Agricultural Sciences, Department of Economics ; 2013:08
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Abstract

This study investigates the contribution of forest carbon sequestration to a cost-efficient EU climate policy from 2010 to 2050 under conditions of uncertainty. We note that there is a trade-off between sequestration and alternative uses of forests such as bioenergy and timber production. A dynamic and probabilistic cost-minimization model is developed, which includes fossil fuel use within the EU Emissions Trading System and forest management in the EU-27 countries. The results suggest that if policy makers wish to meet emissions targets with 80% certainty, this goal will be eight times more expensive than when they were unconcerned with uncertainty. Policy makers’ risk attitudes affect forest management strategy primarily through the inclusion of wood products, where potential carbon emissions reductions are high but also highly uncertain. Excluding wood products from a climate strategy can be expensive if policy maker are insensitive to uncertainty.

Authors/Creators:Elofsson, Katarina and Gren, Ing-Marie
Title:Should forests be used as uncertain carbon sinks or uncertain fossil fuel substitutes in the EU Roadmap to 2050?
Series/Journal:Working paper series / Swedish University of Agricultural Sciences, Department of Economics (1401-4068)
Year of publishing :21 September 2013
Number:2013:08
Number of Pages:35
Place of Publication:Uppsala, Sweden
Publisher:Departnment of Economics, Swedish University of Agricultural Sciences
ISSN:1401-4068
Language:English
Publication Type:Report
Full Text Status:Public
Agris subject categories.:E Economics, development, and rural sociology > E11 Land economics and policies
K Forestry > K01 Forestry - General aspects
P Natural resources > P05 Energy resources management
P Natural resources > P06 Renewable energy resources
Subjects:(A) Swedish standard research categories 2011 > 4 Agricultural Sciences > 405 Other Agricultural Sciences > Renewable Bioenergy Research
(A) Swedish standard research categories 2011 > 4 Agricultural Sciences > 405 Other Agricultural Sciences > Environmental Sciences related to Agriculture and Land-use
(A) Swedish standard research categories 2011 > 5 Social Sciences > 502 Economics and Business > Economics
Keywords:Uncertainty, Carbon sequestration, Bioenergy, Wood products, Climate policy, Cost-efficiency, EU
URN:NBN:urn:nbn:se:slu:epsilon-e-1642
Permanent URL:
http://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:slu:epsilon-e-1642
ID Code:10810
Department:(NL, NJ) > Dept. of Economics
External funders:Energimyndigheten
Deposited By: Ing-Marie Gren
Deposited On:24 Sep 2013 13:53
Metadata Last Modified:02 Dec 2014 11:03

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