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Trends and possible future developments in global forest-product markets-implications for the Swedish forest sector

Jonsson, Ragnar (2011). Trends and possible future developments in global forest-product markets-implications for the Swedish forest sector. Forests. 2:1, 147-167
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Official URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/f2010147

Abstract

This paper analyzes trends and possible future developments in global wood-product markets and discusses implications for the Swedish forest sector. Four possible futures, or scenarios, are considered, based on qualitative scenario analysis. The scenarios are distinguished principally by divergent futures with respect to two highly influential factors driving change in global wood-product markets, whose future development is unpredictable. These so-called critical uncertainties were found to be degrees to which: (i) current patterns of globalization will continue, or be replaced by regionalism, and (ii) concern about the environment, particularly climate change, related policy initiatives and customer preferences, will materialize. The overall future of the Swedish solid wood-product industry looks bright, irrespective of which of the four possible futures occurs, provided it accommodates the expected growth in demand for factory-made, energy-efficient construction components. The prospects for the pulp and paper industry in Sweden appear more ambiguous. Globalization is increasingly shifting production and consumption to the Southern hemisphere, adversely affecting employment and forest owners in Sweden. Further, technical progress in information and communication technology (ICT) is expected to lead to drastic reductions in demand for newsprint and printing paper. Chemical pulp producers may profit from a growing bio-energy industry, since they could manufacture new, high-value products in integrated bio-refineries. Mechanical pulp producers cannot do this, however, and might suffer from higher prices for raw materials and electricity.

Authors/Creators:Jonsson, Ragnar
Title:Trends and possible future developments in global forest-product markets-implications for the Swedish forest sector
Series/Journal:Forests (1999-4907)
Year of publishing :2011
Volume:2
Number:1
Page range:147-167
Number of Pages:21
Publisher:MDPI - Open access publishing
ISSN:1999-4907
Language:English
Publication Type:Journal article
Refereed:Yes
Article category:Scientific peer reviewed
Version:Published version
Full Text Status:Public
Agris subject categories.:K Forestry > K01 Forestry - General aspects
Subjects:(A) Swedish standard research categories 2011 > 4 Agricultural Sciences > 401 Agricultural, Forestry and Fisheries > Forest Science
Keywords:future, global, wood products, scenario analysis, critical uncertainties, pulp and paper, globalization, construction component, ICT
URN:NBN:urn:nbn:se:slu:epsilon-e-1649
Permanent URL:
http://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:slu:epsilon-e-1649
Additional ID:
Type of IDID
Web of Science (WoS)000208657000007
DOI10.3390/f2010147
ID Code:10815
Department:(S) > Southern Swedish Forest Research Centre
Deposited By: SLUpub Connector
Deposited On:01 Oct 2013 13:50
Metadata Last Modified:02 Dec 2014 11:03

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