a multiple method evaluation for management application
Lindegren, Martin and Dakos, Vasilis and Groeger, Joachim P and Gårdmark, Anna and Kornilovs, Georgs and Otto, Saskia A. and Möllmann, Christian
(2012).
Early detection of ecosystem regime shifts.
PloS one. 7
:7
, 1-9
[Journal article]
![]() |
PDF
595kB |
Official URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0038410
Abstract
Critical transitions between alternative stable states have been shown to occur across an array of complex systems. While our ability to identify abrupt regime shifts in natural ecosystems has improved, detection of potential early-warning signals previous to such shifts is still very limited. Using real monitoring data of a key ecosystem component, we here apply multiple early-warning indicators in order to assess their ability to forewarn a major ecosystem regime shift in the Central Baltic Sea. We show that some indicators and methods can result in clear early-warning signals, while other methods may have limited utility in ecosystem-based management as they show no or weak potential for early-warning. We therefore propose a multiple method approach for early detection of ecosystem regime shifts in monitoring data that may be useful in informing timely management actions in the face of ecosystem change.
Authors/Creators: | Lindegren, Martin and Dakos, Vasilis and Groeger, Joachim P and Gårdmark, Anna and Kornilovs, Georgs and Otto, Saskia A. and Möllmann, Christian | ||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Title: | Early detection of ecosystem regime shifts | ||||||
Subtitle: | a multiple method evaluation for management application | ||||||
Series/Journal: | PloS one (1932-6203) | ||||||
Year of publishing : | 2012 | ||||||
Volume: | 7 | ||||||
Number: | 7 | ||||||
Page range: | 1-9 | ||||||
Number of Pages: | 9 | ||||||
Publisher: | Public Library of Science | ||||||
ISSN: | 1932-6203 | ||||||
Language: | English | ||||||
Publication Type: | Journal article | ||||||
Refereed: | Yes | ||||||
Article category: | Scientific peer reviewed | ||||||
Version: | Published version | ||||||
Full Text Status: | Public | ||||||
Agris subject categories.: | M Aquatic sciences and fisheries > M40 Aquatic ecology | ||||||
Subjects: | (A) Swedish standard research categories 2011 > 1 Natural sciences > 106 Biological Sciences (Medical to be 3 and Agricultural to be 4) > Ecology (A) Swedish standard research categories 2011 > 1 Natural sciences > 105 Earth and Related Environmental Sciences > Environmental Sciences (social aspects to be 507) | ||||||
Agrovoc terms: | Ecosystems, indicators, Baltic Sea, ecosystems | ||||||
Keywords: | ecosystems, regime shifts, monitoring data, indicators, early warning, Central Baltic Sea, multiple method approach, management actions, ecosystem change | ||||||
URN:NBN: | urn:nbn:se:slu:epsilon-e-1719 | ||||||
Permanent URL: | http://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:slu:epsilon-e-1719 | ||||||
Additional ID: |
| ||||||
ID Code: | 10924 | ||||||
Department: | (NL, NJ) > Department of Aquatic Resources | ||||||
Deposited By: | SLUpub Connector | ||||||
Deposited On: | 05 Dec 2013 10:41 | ||||||
Metadata Last Modified: | 02 Dec 2014 11:04 |
Repository Staff Only: item control page