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Early detection of ecosystem regime shifts

a multiple method evaluation for management application

Lindegren, Martin and Dakos, Vasilis and Groeger, Joachim P and Gårdmark, Anna and Kornilovs, Georgs and Otto, Saskia A. and Möllmann, Christian (2012). Early detection of ecosystem regime shifts. PloS one. 7:7, 1-9
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Official URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0038410

Abstract

Critical transitions between alternative stable states have been shown to occur across an array of complex systems. While our ability to identify abrupt regime shifts in natural ecosystems has improved, detection of potential early-warning signals previous to such shifts is still very limited. Using real monitoring data of a key ecosystem component, we here apply multiple early-warning indicators in order to assess their ability to forewarn a major ecosystem regime shift in the Central Baltic Sea. We show that some indicators and methods can result in clear early-warning signals, while other methods may have limited utility in ecosystem-based management as they show no or weak potential for early-warning. We therefore propose a multiple method approach for early detection of ecosystem regime shifts in monitoring data that may be useful in informing timely management actions in the face of ecosystem change.

Authors/Creators:Lindegren, Martin and Dakos, Vasilis and Groeger, Joachim P and Gårdmark, Anna and Kornilovs, Georgs and Otto, Saskia A. and Möllmann, Christian
Title:Early detection of ecosystem regime shifts
Subtitle:a multiple method evaluation for management application
Series/Journal:PloS one (1932-6203)
Year of publishing :2012
Volume:7
Number:7
Page range:1-9
Number of Pages:9
Publisher:Public Library of Science
ISSN:1932-6203
Language:English
Publication Type:Journal article
Refereed:Yes
Article category:Scientific peer reviewed
Version:Published version
Full Text Status:Public
Agris subject categories.:M Aquatic sciences and fisheries > M40 Aquatic ecology
Subjects:(A) Swedish standard research categories 2011 > 1 Natural sciences > 106 Biological Sciences (Medical to be 3 and Agricultural to be 4) > Ecology
(A) Swedish standard research categories 2011 > 1 Natural sciences > 105 Earth and Related Environmental Sciences > Environmental Sciences (social aspects to be 507)
Agrovoc terms:Ecosystems, indicators, Baltic Sea, ecosystems
Keywords:ecosystems, regime shifts, monitoring data, indicators, early warning, Central Baltic Sea, multiple method approach, management actions, ecosystem change
URN:NBN:urn:nbn:se:slu:epsilon-e-1719
Permanent URL:
http://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:slu:epsilon-e-1719
Additional ID:
Type of IDID
Web of Science (WoS)000306355500002
DOI10.1371/journal.pone.0038410
ID Code:10924
Department:(NL, NJ) > Department of Aquatic Resources
Deposited By: SLUpub Connector
Deposited On:05 Dec 2013 10:41
Metadata Last Modified:02 Dec 2014 11:04

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