Epsilon Open Archive

Abstract

The potential impact of climatic change on bird species’ distributions in Europe was recently modeled
for several scenarios of projected late 21st century climate. The results indicate
mean range shifts of hundreds of kilometres north for many of European bird species.
Here we consider the implications from such distributional shifts for the bird communities
of Norway spruce (Picea abies)monocultures in southern Sweden, a forest type
likely to remain prevalent due to forestry, despite climate change. Our assessment led us to
three key findings. First, the monocultures offer suitable habitat to only two bird species
projected to extend their breeding distribution northwards into southern Sweden this century.
Second, species richness was projected to decline overall, which would accentuate
the depauperate nature of these stands. Third, all conifer-associated arboreal granivores
and three of four conifer-associated arboreal insectivores were projected not to occur, reducing
both the functional richness and functional redundancy. We discuss caveats related
to our approach, including the potential for bioclimatic projections – used in this
study – to be hampered by the artificial retention of dominant vegetation. We also discuss
the implications of our results for avian biodiversity in what is today the most prevalent
forest type in southern Sweden and in many other regions of Europe.