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Assessing temporal scales and patterns in time series: Comparing methods based on redundancy analysis

Ludovic Baho, Didier and Futter, Martyn and Johnson, Richard and Angeler, David (2015). Assessing temporal scales and patterns in time series: Comparing methods based on redundancy analysis. Ecological Complexity. 22, 162-168
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Official URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.ecocom.2015.04.001

Abstract

Time-series modelling techniques are powerful tools for studying temporal scaling structures and dynamics present in ecological and other complex systems and are gaining popularity for assessing resilience quantitatively. Among other methods, canonical ordinations based on redundancy analysis are increasingly used for determining temporal scaling patterns that are inherent in ecological data. However, modelling outcomes and thus inference about ecological dynamics and resilience may vary depending on the approaches used. In this study, we compare the statistical performance, logical consistency and information content of two approaches: (i) asymmetric eigenvector maps (AEM) that account for linear trends and (ii) symmetric distance-based Moran's eigenvector maps (MEM), which requires detrending of raw data to remove linear trends prior to analysis. Our comparison is done using long-term water quality data (25 years) from three Swedish lakes. This data set therefore provides the opportunity for assessing how the modelling approach used affects performance and inference in time series modelling. We found that AEM models had consistently more explanatory power than MEM, and in two out of three lakes AEM extracted one more temporal scale than MEM. The scale-specific patterns detected by AEM and MEM were uncorrelated. Also individual water quality variables explaining these patterns differed between methods, suggesting that inferences about systems dynamics are dependent on modelling approach. These findings suggest that AEM might be more suitable for assessing dynamics in time series analysis compared to MEM when temporal trends are relevant. The AEM approach is logically consistent with temporal autocorrelation where earlier conditions can influence later conditions but not vice versa. The symmetric MEM approach, which ignores the asymmetric nature of time, might be suitable for addressing specific questions about the importance of correlations in fluctuation patterns where there are no confounding elements of linear trends or a need to assess causality.

Authors/Creators:Ludovic Baho, Didier and Futter, Martyn and Johnson, Richard and Angeler, David
Title:Assessing temporal scales and patterns in time series: Comparing methods based on redundancy analysis
Series/Journal:Ecological Complexity (1476-945X)
Year of publishing :2015
Volume:22
Page range:162-168
Number of Pages:7
Publisher:Elsevier
ISSN:1476-945X
Language:English
Publication Type:Journal article
Refereed:Yes
Article category:Scientific peer reviewed
Version:Published version
Full Text Status:Public
Agris subject categories.:L Animal production > L20 Animal ecology
U Auxiliary disciplines > U30 Research methods
Subjects:(A) Swedish standard research categories 2011 > 1 Natural sciences > 106 Biological Sciences (Medical to be 3 and Agricultural to be 4) > Ecology
Agrovoc terms:methods, time series analysis, ecology
Keywords:Moran's eigenvector maps, Asymmetric eigenvector maps, Temporal scales, Time-series modelling, Complex adaptive systems
URN:NBN:urn:nbn:se:slu:epsilon-e-3010
Permanent URL:
http://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:slu:epsilon-e-3010
Additional ID:
Type of IDID
Web of Science (WoS)000356196900019
DOI10.1016/j.ecocom.2015.04.001
ID Code:12724
Faculty:NJ - Fakulteten för naturresurser och jordbruksvetenskap
Department:(NL, NJ) > Dept. of Aquatic Sciences and Assessment
Deposited By: SLUpub Connector
Deposited On:27 Oct 2015 07:05
Metadata Last Modified:10 Feb 2016 08:59

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