modelling imprecise preferences and a new theory for decision under risk
Bayrak, Oben K.
(2016).
Preference cloud theory.
Diss. (sammanfattning/summary)
Umeå :
Sveriges lantbruksuniv.,
Acta Universitatis Agriculturae Sueciae, 1652-6880
; 2016:44
ISBN 978-91-576-8590-2
eISBN 978-91-576-8591-9
[Doctoral thesis]
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PDF
1MB |
Abstract
This study presents Preference Cloud Theory, a two-step model of decision making under risk. It also includes an experimental study on valuation gap which provides supporting results for the new theory. The new theory provides an explanation for empirically observed anomalies of Expected Utility Theory such as the Allais Paradox, valuation gap, and preference reversals. Central to the theory is the incorporation of preference imprecision, which has support in emerging literature, and challenges to the alternative models for Expected Utility Theory. Preference Cloud Theory assumes that preference imprecision arises because of individuals’ vague understanding of numerical probabilities. The theory combines this concept with the use of the Alpha Model (which builds on Hurwicz’s criterion) and constructs a simple model, helping us to understand various anomalies discovered in the experimental economics literature that standard models could not explain.
Authors/Creators: | Bayrak, Oben K. | ||||||||||
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Title: | Preference cloud theory | ||||||||||
Subtitle: | modelling imprecise preferences and a new theory for decision under risk | ||||||||||
Series Name/Journal: | Acta Universitatis Agriculturae Sueciae | ||||||||||
Year of publishing : | 2016 | ||||||||||
Depositing date: | 19 April 2016 | ||||||||||
Number: | 2016:44 | ||||||||||
Number of Pages: | 148 | ||||||||||
Papers/manuscripts: |
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Place of Publication: | Umeå | ||||||||||
Publisher: | Department of Forest Economics, Swedish University of Agricultural Sciences | ||||||||||
ISBN for printed version: | 978-91-576-8590-2 | ||||||||||
ISBN for electronic version: | 978-91-576-8591-9 | ||||||||||
ISSN: | 1652-6880 | ||||||||||
Language: | English | ||||||||||
Publication Type: | Doctoral thesis | ||||||||||
Full Text Status: | Public | ||||||||||
Agris subject categories.: | E Economics, development, and rural sociology > E73 Consumer economics | ||||||||||
Subjects: | (A) Swedish standard research categories 2011 > 5 Social Sciences > 502 Economics and Business > Economics | ||||||||||
Agrovoc terms: | decision making, risk, valuation, economic theories, models, uncertainty, probability analysis, human behaviour | ||||||||||
Keywords: | decision under risk, preference reveals, valuation gap, Allais Paradox, Willingness to pay and accept disparity, experimental economics, behavioural economics | ||||||||||
URN:NBN: | urn:nbn:se:slu:epsilon-e-3391 | ||||||||||
Permanent URL: | http://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:slu:epsilon-e-3391 | ||||||||||
ID Code: | 13289 | ||||||||||
Faculty: | S - Faculty of Forest Sciences | ||||||||||
Department: | (S) > Dept. of Forest Economics | ||||||||||
Deposited By: | PhD Camilla Widmark | ||||||||||
Deposited On: | 20 Apr 2016 08:59 | ||||||||||
Metadata Last Modified: | 10 Sep 2020 13:41 |
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