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Impacts of climate change on forest management and implications for Swedish forestry

an analysis based on growth and yield models

Subramanian, Narayanan (2016). Impacts of climate change on forest management and implications for Swedish forestry. Diss. (sammanfattning/summary) Alnarp : Sveriges lantbruksuniv., Acta Universitatis agriculturae Sueciae, 1652-6880 ; 2016:58
ISBN 978-91-576-8618-3
eISBN 978-91-576-8619-0
[Doctoral thesis]

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Abstract

While climate change is expected to increase the growth rates of most tree species in Sweden in the future, during this period, there are also increased risks of tree damage due to various risk factors associated with climate change. Therefore, it is necessary to develop adaptive management measures in order to exploit the benefits of climate change and minimize the damage resulting from these risk factors. In this thesis, the interactive effects of future climate change and various risk factors associated with the future climate such as storms, environmental pollutants, pests and pathogens such as root rot and bark beetle on growth and yield of important tree species in Swedish forestry such as Norway spruce (Picea abies (L.) Karst.), Scots pine (Pinus sylvestnis L.) and birch (Betula spp) are investigated and possible adaptive management measures are proposed. Simulations of a representative Norway spruce stand in southern Sweden performed using the empirical Heureka-Standwise model (Paper I) showed that forest management practices such as changing the thinning regime, shortening rotation periods, and switching to exotic tree species like hybrid aspen and hybrid larch could effectively reduce damage caused by risk factors and be financially rewarding. Standlevel simulations of six representative stands across Sweden using the ozone parameterized process-based model 3-PG showed that future growth and biomass production could be adversely affected by increasing tropospheric ozone concentrations (Paper II). However, the reduction in growth and biomass production was much lower than the increase due to climate change in all parts of Sweden other than the south. A new landscape-level hybrid model 3PG-Heureka was developed, parameterised and evaluated for Kronoberg county, Sweden (Paper III). The overall performance of the model was satisfactory with highest average error content of 1.5%. The hybrid model’s predictions under the future climate scenarios indicated that the storm events could drastically affect the growth and economy of forest landscape in Kronoberg county if the current forest management remains unchanged (Paper IV). Adaptive management regimes featuring shorter rotation periods were predicted to improve annual volume increments and net revenue while reducing storm-felling under two future climate scenarios (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) but replacing Norway spruce with Scots pine was found to be less effective than reducing the rotation period.

Authors/Creators:Subramanian, Narayanan
Title:Impacts of climate change on forest management and implications for Swedish forestry
Subtitle:an analysis based on growth and yield models
Series/Journal:Acta Universitatis agriculturae Sueciae (1652-6880)
Year of publishing :12 May 2016
Depositing date:12 May 2016
Volume:2016:58
Number of Pages:81
Papers/manuscripts:
NumberReferences
ISubramanian, N., Bergh, J., Johansson, U., Nilsson, U. & Sallnäs, O. (2016) Adaptation of forest management regimes in southern Sweden to increased risks associated with climate change. Forests, 7(1), p. 8.
IISubramanian, N., Karlsson, P.E., Bergh, J. & Nilsson, U. (2015). Impact of Ozone on Sequestration of Carbon by Swedish Forests under Changing Climate: A Modeling Study. Forest Sciences 61(3), 445-457.
IIISubramanian, N., Nilsson, U., Mossberg, M. & Bergh J. (2016). The 3PGHeureka hybrid model: Combining process of tree growth based on Light Use Efficiency model, 3-PG and management activities based on Heureka- Regwise Decision Support System. (Manuscript)
IVSubramanian, N., Nilsson, U., Mossberg, M. & Bergh J. (2016). Interactive effects of climate change, weather extremes and adaptive strategies in a nemo-boreal forest landscape: A long-term modeling analysis using the hybrid forest model 3PG-Heureka. (Manuscript)
Place of Publication:Alnarp
Publisher:Southern Swedish Forest Research Centre, Swedish University of Agricultural Sciences
Associated Programs and Other Stakeholders:SLU - Environmental assessment > Programme Climate
SLU - Environmental assessment > Programme Forest
SLU - Research Areas for the Future > Future Forests
SLU - Agricultural Sciences for Global Development > Land use and climate change
ISBN for printed version:978-91-576-8618-3
ISBN for electronic version:978-91-576-8619-0
ISSN:1652-6880
Language:English
Publication Type:Doctoral thesis
Full Text Status:Public
Agris subject categories.:K Forestry > K10 Forestry production
T Pollution > T01 Pollution
Subjects:(A) Swedish standard research categories 2011 > 4 Agricultural Sciences > 401 Agricultural, Forestry and Fisheries > Forest Science
Agrovoc terms:climate change, forest management, adaptation, forest trees, growth, yields, ozone, pollutants, wind damage, ips typographus, root rots, landscape, simulation models, sweden
Keywords:climate change, simulation model, landscape modelling, adaptive management, environmental pollutants, storm-felling, root rot, bark beetle
URN:NBN:urn:nbn:se:slu:epsilon-e-3429
Permanent URL:
http://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:slu:epsilon-e-3429
ID Code:13362
Faculty:S - Faculty of Forest Sciences
Department:(S) > Southern Swedish Forest Research Centre
External funders:FORMAS and Future Forests and TC4F (Trees and Crops for the Future)
Deposited By: Mr Narayanan Subramanian
Deposited On:12 May 2016 12:35
Metadata Last Modified:12 May 2016 12:35

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