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Quantifying the adaptive cycle

Angeler, David and Garmestani, Ahjond S. and Allen, Craig R. and Gunderson, Lance H and Hjerne, Olle and Winder, Monika (2015). Quantifying the adaptive cycle. PloS one. 10:12, 1-17
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Abstract

The adaptive cycle was proposed as a conceptual model to portray patterns of change in complex systems. Despite the model having potential for elucidating change across systems, it has been used mainly as a metaphor, describing system dynamics qualitatively. We use a quantitative approach for testing premises (reorganisation, conservatism, adaptation) in the adaptive cycle, using Baltic Sea phytoplankton communities as an example of such complex system dynamics. Phytoplankton organizes in recurring spring and summer blooms, a well-established paradigm in planktology and succession theory, with characteristic temporal trajectories during blooms that may be consistent with adaptive cycle phases. We used long-term (1994–2011) data and multivariate analysis of community structure to assess key components of the adaptive cycle. Specifically, we tested predictions about: reorganisation: spring and summer blooms comprise distinct community states; conservatism: community trajectories during individual adaptive cycles are conservative; and adaptation: phytoplankton species during blooms change in the long term. All predictions were supported by our analyses. Results suggest that traditional ecological paradigms such as phytoplankton successional models have potential for moving the adaptive cycle from a metaphor to a framework that can improve our understanding how complex systems organize and reorganize following collapse. Quantifying reorganization, conservatism and adaptation provides opportunities to cope with the intricacies and uncertainties associated with fast ecological change, driven by shifting system controls. Ultimately, combining traditional ecological paradigms with heuristics of complex system dynamics using quantitative approaches may help refine ecological theory and improve our understanding of the resilience of ecosystems.

Authors/Creators:Angeler, David and Garmestani, Ahjond S. and Allen, Craig R. and Gunderson, Lance H and Hjerne, Olle and Winder, Monika
Title:Quantifying the adaptive cycle
Series/Journal:PloS one (1932-6203)
Year of publishing :2015
Volume:10
Number:12
Page range:1-17
Number of Pages:17
Publisher:Public Library of Science
ISSN:1932-6203
Language:English
Publication Type:Journal article
Refereed:Yes
Article category:Scientific peer reviewed
Version:Published version
Full Text Status:Public
Subjects:(A) Swedish standard research categories 2011 > 1 Natural sciences > 106 Biological Sciences (Medical to be 3 and Agricultural to be 4) > Ecology
Agrovoc terms:ecology, phytoplankton, ecosystems
Keywords:phytoplankton, ecology, complex systems
URN:NBN:urn:nbn:se:slu:epsilon-e-3480
Permanent URL:
http://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:slu:epsilon-e-3480
Additional ID:
Type of IDID
Web of Science (WoS)000367510500127
DOI10.1371/journal.pone.0146053
ID Code:13388
Faculty:NJ - Fakulteten för naturresurser och jordbruksvetenskap
Department:(NL, NJ) > Dept. of Aquatic Sciences and Assessment
External funders:FORMAS
Deposited By: SLUpub Connector
Deposited On:10 Jun 2016 09:25
Metadata Last Modified:13 Jun 2016 20:44

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