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Impact of spatial soil and climate input data aggregation on regional yield simulations

Hoffmann, Holger and Coucheney, Elsa and Eckersten, Henrik and Lewan, Elisabet and Ewert, Frank (2016). Impact of spatial soil and climate input data aggregation on regional yield simulations. PloS one. 11:4, 1-14
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Official URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0151782

Abstract

We show the error in water-limited yields simulated by crop models which is associated with spatially aggregated soil and climate input data. Crop simulations at large scales (regional, national, continental) frequently use input data of low resolution. Therefore, climate and soil data are often generated via averaging and sampling by area majority. This may bias simulated yields at large scales, varying largely across models. Thus, we evaluated the error associated with spatially aggregated soil and climate data for 14 crop models. Yields of winter wheat and silage maize were simulated under water-limited production conditions. We calculated this error from crop yields simulated at spatial resolutions from 1 to 100 km for the state of North Rhine-Westphalia, Germany. Most models showed yields biased by <15% when aggregating only soil data. The relative mean absolute error (rMAE) of most models using aggregated soil data was in the range or larger than the inter-annual or inter-model variability in yields. This error increased further when both climate and soil data were aggregated. Distinct error patterns indicate that the rMAE may be estimated from few soil variables. Illustrating the range of these aggregation effects across models, this study is a first step towards an ex-ante assessment of aggregation errors in large-scale simulations.

Authors/Creators:Hoffmann, Holger and Coucheney, Elsa and Eckersten, Henrik and Lewan, Elisabet and Ewert, Frank
Title:Impact of spatial soil and climate input data aggregation on regional yield simulations
Series/Journal:PloS one (1932-6203)
Year of publishing :2016
Volume:11
Number:4
Page range:1-14
Number of Pages:14
Publisher:Public Library of Science
ISSN:1932-6203
Language:English
Publication Type:Journal article
Refereed:Yes
Article category:Scientific peer reviewed
Version:Published version
Full Text Status:Public
Agris subject categories.:F Plant production > F01 Crop husbandry
U Auxiliary disciplines > U30 Research methods
Subjects:(A) Swedish standard research categories 2011 > 4 Agricultural Sciences > 401 Agricultural, Forestry and Fisheries > Agricultural Science
Keywords:model variability, spatial variability, temporal variability, crop specific aggregation effects
URN:NBN:urn:nbn:se:slu:epsilon-e-3871
Permanent URL:
http://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:slu:epsilon-e-3871
Additional ID:
Type of IDID
Web of Science (WoS)000373608000007
ID Code:13913
Faculty:NJ - Fakulteten för naturresurser och jordbruksvetenskap
S - Faculty of Forest Sciences
Department:(NL, NJ) > Dept. of Crop Production Ecology
(NL, NJ) > Dept. of Soil and Environment
(S) > Dept. of Soil and Environment
Deposited By: SLUpub Connector
Deposited On:09 Jan 2017 09:20
Metadata Last Modified:09 Jan 2017 09:20

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