Oni, Stephen and Futter, Martyn and Ledesma, José L. J. and Teutschbein, Claudia and Buttle, Jim and Laudon, Hjalmar
(2016).
Using dry and wet year hydroclimatic extremes to guide future hydrologic projections.
Hydrology and earth system sciences. 20
:7
, 2811-2825
[Research article]
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Available under License Creative Commons Attribution. 1MB |
Abstract
There are growing numbers of studies on climate change impacts on forest hydrology, but limited attempts have been made to use current hydroclimatic variabilities to constrain projections of future climatic conditions. Here we used historical wet and dry years as a proxy for expected future extreme conditions in a boreal catchment. We showed that runoff could be underestimated by at least 35% when dry year parameterizations were used for wet year conditions. Uncertainty analysis showed that behavioural parameter sets from wet and dry years separated mainly on precipitation-related parameters and to a lesser extent on parameters related to landscape processes, while uncertainties inherent in climate models (as opposed to differences in calibration or performance metrics) appeared to drive the overall uncertainty in runoff projections under dry and wet hydroclimatic conditions. Hydrologic model calibration for climate impact studies could be based on years that closely approximate anticipated conditions to better constrain uncertainty in projecting extreme conditions in boreal and temperate regions.
Authors/Creators: | Oni, Stephen and Futter, Martyn and Ledesma, José L. J. and Teutschbein, Claudia and Buttle, Jim and Laudon, Hjalmar | ||||||
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Title: | Using dry and wet year hydroclimatic extremes to guide future hydrologic projections | ||||||
Series Name/Journal: | Hydrology and earth system sciences | ||||||
Year of publishing : | 2016 | ||||||
Volume: | 20 | ||||||
Number: | 7 | ||||||
Page range: | 2811-2825 | ||||||
Number of Pages: | 15 | ||||||
Publisher: | Copernicus Publications | ||||||
ISSN: | 1607-7938 | ||||||
Language: | English | ||||||
Publication Type: | Research article | ||||||
Refereed: | Yes | ||||||
Article category: | Scientific peer reviewed | ||||||
Version: | Published version | ||||||
Copyright: | Creative Commons: Attribution 3.0 | ||||||
Full Text Status: | Public | ||||||
Subjects: | (A) Swedish standard research categories 2011 > 1 Natural sciences > 105 Earth and Related Environmental Sciences > Climate Research (A) Swedish standard research categories 2011 > 1 Natural sciences > 105 Earth and Related Environmental Sciences > Environmental Sciences (social aspects to be 507) (A) Swedish standard research categories 2011 > 1 Natural sciences > 105 Earth and Related Environmental Sciences > Oceanography, Hydrology, Water Resources | ||||||
Agrovoc terms: | hydrology, forestry | ||||||
Keywords: | climate change, forest hydrology, boreal catchment | ||||||
URN:NBN: | urn:nbn:se:slu:epsilon-e-3987 | ||||||
Permanent URL: | http://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:slu:epsilon-e-3987 | ||||||
Additional ID: |
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Alternative URL: | http://www.hydrol-earth-syst-sci.net/20/2811/2016/ | ||||||
ID Code: | 14094 | ||||||
Faculty: | NJ - Fakulteten för naturresurser och jordbruksvetenskap S - Faculty of Forest Sciences | ||||||
Department: | (NL, NJ) > Dept. of Aquatic Sciences and Assessment (S) > Dept. of Forest Ecology and Management | ||||||
Deposited By: | SLUpub Connector | ||||||
Deposited On: | 27 Feb 2017 14:53 | ||||||
Metadata Last Modified: | 09 Sep 2020 14:17 |
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