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Using dry and wet year hydroclimatic extremes to guide future hydrologic projections

Oni, Stephen and Futter, Martyn and Ledesma, José L. J. and Teutschbein, Claudia and Buttle, Jim and Laudon, Hjalmar (2016). Using dry and wet year hydroclimatic extremes to guide future hydrologic projections. Hydrology and earth system sciences. 20:7, 2811-2825
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Abstract

There are growing numbers of studies on climate change impacts on forest hydrology, but limited attempts have been made to use current hydroclimatic variabilities to constrain projections of future climatic conditions. Here we used historical wet and dry years as a proxy for expected future extreme conditions in a boreal catchment. We showed that runoff could be underestimated by at least 35% when dry year parameterizations were used for wet year conditions. Uncertainty analysis showed that behavioural parameter sets from wet and dry years separated mainly on precipitation-related parameters and to a lesser extent on parameters related to landscape processes, while uncertainties inherent in climate models (as opposed to differences in calibration or performance metrics) appeared to drive the overall uncertainty in runoff projections under dry and wet hydroclimatic conditions. Hydrologic model calibration for climate impact studies could be based on years that closely approximate anticipated conditions to better constrain uncertainty in projecting extreme conditions in boreal and temperate regions.

Authors/Creators:Oni, Stephen and Futter, Martyn and Ledesma, José L. J. and Teutschbein, Claudia and Buttle, Jim and Laudon, Hjalmar
Title:Using dry and wet year hydroclimatic extremes to guide future hydrologic projections
Series/Journal:Hydrology and earth system sciences (1607-7938)
Year of publishing :2016
Volume:20
Number:7
Page range:2811-2825
Number of Pages:15
Publisher:Copernicus Publications
ISSN:1607-7938
Language:English
Publication Type:Journal article
Refereed:Yes
Article category:Scientific peer reviewed
Version:Published version
Full Text Status:Public
Subjects:(A) Swedish standard research categories 2011 > 1 Natural sciences > 105 Earth and Related Environmental Sciences > Climate Research
(A) Swedish standard research categories 2011 > 1 Natural sciences > 105 Earth and Related Environmental Sciences > Environmental Sciences (social aspects to be 507)
(A) Swedish standard research categories 2011 > 1 Natural sciences > 105 Earth and Related Environmental Sciences > Oceanography, Hydrology, Water Resources
Agrovoc terms:hydrology, forestry
Keywords:climate change, forest hydrology, boreal catchment
URN:NBN:urn:nbn:se:slu:epsilon-e-3987
Permanent URL:
http://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:slu:epsilon-e-3987
Additional ID:
Type of IDID
Web of Science (WoS)000381101700001
DOI10.5194/hess-20-2811-2016
ID Code:14094
Faculty:NJ - Fakulteten för naturresurser och jordbruksvetenskap
S - Faculty of Forest Sciences
Department:(NL, NJ) > Dept. of Aquatic Sciences and Assessment
(S) > Dept. of Forest Ecology and Management
Deposited By: SLUpub Connector
Deposited On:27 Feb 2017 14:53
Metadata Last Modified:27 Feb 2017 14:53

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