Home About Browse Search
Svenska


Forest management could counteract distribution retractions forced by climate change

Mair, Louise and Harrison, Philip J and Räty, Minna and Bärring, Lars and Strandberg, Gustav and Snäll, Tord (2017). Forest management could counteract distribution retractions forced by climate change. Ecological applications. 27:5, 1485-1497
[Journal article]

[img]
Preview
PDF (Copyright by the Ecological Society of America. Posted here with their permission.) - Published Version
2MB

Official URL: https://doi.org/10.1371/10.1002/eap.1541

Abstract

Climate change is expected to drive the distribution retraction of northern species. However, particularly in regions with a history of intensive exploitation, changes in habitat management could facilitate distribution expansions counter to expectations under climate change. Here, we test the potential for future forest management to facilitate the southward expansion of an old-forest species from the boreal region into the boreo-nemoral region, contrary to expectations under climate change. We used an ensemble of species distribution models based on citizen science data to project the response of Phellinus ferrugineofuscus, a redlisted old-growth indicator, wood-decaying fungus, to six forest management and climate change scenarios. We projected change in habitat suitability across the boreal and boreonemoral regions of Sweden for the period 2020-2100. Scenarios varied in the proportion of forest set aside from production, the level of timber extraction, and the magnitude of climate change. Habitat suitabilities for the study species were projected to show larger relative increases over time in the boreo-nemoral region compared to the boreal region, under all scenarios. By 2100, mean suitabilities in set-aside forest in the boreo-nemoral region were similar to the suitabilities projected for set-aside forest in the boreal region in 2020, suggesting that occurrence in the boreo-nemoral region could be increased. However, across all scenarios, consistently higher projected suitabilities in set-aside forest in the boreal region indicated that the boreal region remained the species stronghold. Furthermore, negative effects of climate change were evident in the boreal region, and projections suggested that climatic changes may eventually counteract the positive effects of forest management in the boreo-nemoral region. Our results suggest that the current rarity of this old-growth indicator species in the boreo-nemoral region may be due to the history of intensive forestry. Forest management therefore has the potential to compensate for the negative effects of climate change. However, increased occurrence at the southern range edge would depend on the dispersal and colonization ability of the species. An increase in the amount of set-aside forest across both the boreal and boreonemoral regions is therefore likely to be required to prevent the decline of old-forest species under climate change.

Authors/Creators:Mair, Louise and Harrison, Philip J and Räty, Minna and Bärring, Lars and Strandberg, Gustav and Snäll, Tord
Title:Forest management could counteract distribution retractions forced by climate change
Series/Journal:Ecological applications (1051-0761)
Year of publishing :2017
Volume:27
Number:5
Page range:1485-1497
Number of Pages:13
Publisher:Ecological Society of America, Wiley
Associated Programs and Other Stakeholders:SLU - Environmental assessment > Data from Environmental Assesment (FoMA) is used
SLU - Environmental assessment > Programme Forest
SLU - Environmental assessment > Programme Biodiversity
ISSN:1051-0761
Language:English
Publication Type:Journal article
Refereed:Yes
Article category:Scientific peer reviewed
Version:Published version
Full Text Status:Public
Agris subject categories.:K Forestry > K70 Forest injuries and protection
P Natural resources > P01 Nature conservation and land resources
Subjects:(A) Swedish standard research categories 2011 > 4 Agricultural Sciences > 401 Agricultural, Forestry and Fisheries > Forest Science
(A) Swedish standard research categories 2011 > 1 Natural sciences > 105 Earth and Related Environmental Sciences > Climate Research
Agrovoc terms:climate change, forest monitoring and assessment, citizen participation
Keywords:citizen science, climate change, dead wood, forestry, habitat management, polypore fungi, volunteer recording
URN:NBN:urn:nbn:se:slu:epsilon-e-4728
Permanent URL:
http://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:slu:epsilon-e-4728
Additional ID:
Type of IDID
DOI10.1002/eap.1541
Web of Science (WoS)000405174300007
ID Code:15043
Faculty:NJ - Fakulteten för naturresurser och jordbruksvetenskap
Department:(NL, NJ) > Swedish Species Information Centre
Deposited By: SLUpub Connector
Deposited On:08 Feb 2018 08:31
Metadata Last Modified:08 Feb 2018 08:32

Repository Staff Only: item control page

Downloads

Downloads per year (since September 2012)

View more statistics

Downloads
Hits