Mair, Louise and Harrison, Philip J and Räty, Minna and Bärring, Lars and Strandberg, Gustav and Snäll, Tord
(2017).
Forest management could counteract distribution retractions forced by climate change.
Ecological applications. 27
:5
, 1485-1497
[Journal article]
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PDF (Copyright by the Ecological Society of America. Posted here with their permission.)
- Published Version
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Official URL: https://doi.org/10.1371/10.1002/eap.1541
Abstract
Climate change is expected to drive the distribution retraction of northern species. However, particularly in regions with a history of intensive exploitation, changes in habitat management could facilitate distribution expansions counter to expectations under climate change. Here, we test the potential for future forest management to facilitate the southward expansion of an old-forest species from the boreal region into the boreo-nemoral region, contrary to expectations under climate change. We used an ensemble of species distribution models based on citizen science data to project the response of Phellinus ferrugineofuscus, a redlisted old-growth indicator, wood-decaying fungus, to six forest management and climate change scenarios. We projected change in habitat suitability across the boreal and boreonemoral regions of Sweden for the period 2020-2100. Scenarios varied in the proportion of forest set aside from production, the level of timber extraction, and the magnitude of climate change. Habitat suitabilities for the study species were projected to show larger relative increases over time in the boreo-nemoral region compared to the boreal region, under all scenarios. By 2100, mean suitabilities in set-aside forest in the boreo-nemoral region were similar to the suitabilities projected for set-aside forest in the boreal region in 2020, suggesting that occurrence in the boreo-nemoral region could be increased. However, across all scenarios, consistently higher projected suitabilities in set-aside forest in the boreal region indicated that the boreal region remained the species stronghold. Furthermore, negative effects of climate change were evident in the boreal region, and projections suggested that climatic changes may eventually counteract the positive effects of forest management in the boreo-nemoral region. Our results suggest that the current rarity of this old-growth indicator species in the boreo-nemoral region may be due to the history of intensive forestry. Forest management therefore has the potential to compensate for the negative effects of climate change. However, increased occurrence at the southern range edge would depend on the dispersal and colonization ability of the species. An increase in the amount of set-aside forest across both the boreal and boreonemoral regions is therefore likely to be required to prevent the decline of old-forest species under climate change.
Authors/Creators: | Mair, Louise and Harrison, Philip J and Räty, Minna and Bärring, Lars and Strandberg, Gustav and Snäll, Tord | ||||||
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Title: | Forest management could counteract distribution retractions forced by climate change | ||||||
Series/Journal: | Ecological applications (1051-0761) | ||||||
Year of publishing : | 2017 | ||||||
Volume: | 27 | ||||||
Number: | 5 | ||||||
Page range: | 1485-1497 | ||||||
Number of Pages: | 13 | ||||||
Publisher: | Ecological Society of America, Wiley | ||||||
Associated Programs and Other Stakeholders: | SLU - Environmental assessment > Data from Environmental Assesment (FoMA) is used SLU - Environmental assessment > Programme Forest SLU - Environmental assessment > Programme Biodiversity | ||||||
ISSN: | 1051-0761 | ||||||
Language: | English | ||||||
Publication Type: | Journal article | ||||||
Refereed: | Yes | ||||||
Article category: | Scientific peer reviewed | ||||||
Version: | Published version | ||||||
Full Text Status: | Public | ||||||
Agris subject categories.: | K Forestry > K70 Forest injuries and protection P Natural resources > P01 Nature conservation and land resources | ||||||
Subjects: | (A) Swedish standard research categories 2011 > 4 Agricultural Sciences > 401 Agricultural, Forestry and Fisheries > Forest Science (A) Swedish standard research categories 2011 > 1 Natural sciences > 105 Earth and Related Environmental Sciences > Climate Research | ||||||
Agrovoc terms: | climate change, forest monitoring and assessment, citizen participation | ||||||
Keywords: | citizen science, climate change, dead wood, forestry, habitat management, polypore fungi, volunteer recording | ||||||
URN:NBN: | urn:nbn:se:slu:epsilon-e-4728 | ||||||
Permanent URL: | http://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:slu:epsilon-e-4728 | ||||||
Additional ID: |
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ID Code: | 15043 | ||||||
Faculty: | NJ - Fakulteten för naturresurser och jordbruksvetenskap | ||||||
Department: | (NL, NJ) > Swedish Species Information Centre | ||||||
Deposited By: | SLUpub Connector | ||||||
Deposited On: | 08 Feb 2018 08:31 | ||||||
Metadata Last Modified: | 18 Jul 2020 14:07 |
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