To what extent is climate change adaptation a novel challenge for agricultural modellers?

Kipling, R.P. and Topp, C.F.E. and Bannink, A. and Bartley, D.J. and Blanco Penedo, Isabel and Cortignani, R. and del Prado, A. and Dono, G. and Faverdin, P. and Graux, A.-I. and Hutchings, N.J. and Lauwers, L. and Özkan Gülzar, S. and Reidsma, P. and Rolinski, S. and Ruiz-Ramos, M. and Sandars, D.L. and Sándor, R. and Schönhart, M. and Seddaiu, G. and van Middelkoop, J. and Shrestha, S. and Weindl, I. and Eory, V. (2019). To what extent is climate change adaptation a novel challenge for agricultural modellers? Environmental Modelling and Software. 120 , 1-21
[Research article]

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Abstract

Modelling is key to adapting agriculture to climate change (CC), facilitating evaluation of the impacts and efficacy of adaptation measures, and the design of optimal strategies. Although there are many challenges to modelling agricultural CC adaptation, it is unclear whether these are novel or, whether adaptation merely adds new motivations to old challenges. Here, qualitative analysis of modellers’ views revealed three categories of challenge: Content, Use, and Capacity. Triangulation of findings with reviews of agricultural modelling and Climate Change Risk Assessment was then used to highlight challenges specific to modelling adaptation. These were refined through literature review, focussing attention on how the progressive nature of CC affects the role and impact of modelling. Specific challenges identified were: Scope of adaptations modelled, Information on future adaptation, Collaboration to tackle novel challenges, Optimisation under progressive change with thresholds, and Responsibility given the sensitivity of future outcomes to initial choices under progressive change.