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Economic Effects of Climate Change-Induced Loss of Agricultural Production by 2050: A Case Study of Pakistan

Khan, Muhammad Aamir and Tahir, Alishba and Khurshid, Nabila and ul Husnain, Muhammad Iftikhar and Ahmed, Mukhtar and Boughanmi, Houcine (2020). Economic Effects of Climate Change-Induced Loss of Agricultural Production by 2050: A Case Study of Pakistan. Sustainability. 12 , 1216 , 1-17
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Abstract

This research combined global climate, crop and economic models to examine the economic impact of climate change-induced loss of agricultural productivity in Pakistan. Previous studies conducted systematic model inter-comparisons, but results varied widely due to differences in model approaches, research scenarios and input data. This paper extends that analysis in the case of Pakistan by taking yield decline output of the Decision Support System for Agrotechnology Transfer (DSSAT) for CERES-Wheat, CERES-Rice and Agricultural Production Systems Simulator (APSIM) crop models as an input in the global economic model to evaluate the economic effects of climate change-induced loss of crop production by 2050. Results showed that climate change-induced loss of wheat and rice crop production by 2050 is 19.5 billion dollars on Pakistan's Real Gross Domestic Product coupled with an increase in commodity prices followed by a notable decrease in domestic private consumption. However, the decline in the crops' production not only affects the economic agents involved in the agriculture sector of the country, but it also has a multiplier effect on industrial and business sectors. A huge rise in commodity prices will create a great challenge for the livelihood of the whole country, especially for urban households. It is recommended that the government should have a sound agricultural policy that can play a role in influencing its ability to adapt successfully to climate change as adaption is necessary for high production and net returns of the farm output.

Authors/Creators:Khan, Muhammad Aamir and Tahir, Alishba and Khurshid, Nabila and ul Husnain, Muhammad Iftikhar and Ahmed, Mukhtar and Boughanmi, Houcine
Title:Economic Effects of Climate Change-Induced Loss of Agricultural Production by 2050: A Case Study of Pakistan
Year of publishing :2020
Volume:12
Article number:1216
Number of Pages:17
Publisher:MDPI
ISSN:2071-1050
Language:English
Publication Type:Journal article
Article category:Scientific peer reviewed
Version:Published version
Copyright:Creative Commons: Attribution 4.0
Full Text Status:Public
Subjects:(A) Swedish standard research categories 2011 > 4 Agricultural Sciences > 405 Other Agricultural Sciences > Environmental Sciences related to Agriculture and Land-use
Keywords:climate change, global climate models, economic models, agriculture production, computable general equilibrium, Pakistan
URN:NBN:urn:nbn:se:slu:epsilon-p-105429
Permanent URL:
http://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:slu:epsilon-p-105429
Additional ID:
Type of IDID
DOI10.3390/su12031216
Web of Science (WoS)000524899603050
ID Code:17066
Faculty:NJ - Fakulteten för naturresurser och jordbruksvetenskap
Department:(NL, NJ) > Dept. of Agricultural Research for Northern Sweden
(VH) > Dept. of Agricultural Research for Northern Sweden
Deposited By: SLUpub Connector
Deposited On:04 Jun 2020 07:37
Metadata Last Modified:04 Jun 2020 07:37

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