Home About Browse Search
Svenska


Combining Climate Change Mitigation Scenarios with Current Forest Owner Behavior: A Scenario Study from a Region in Southern Sweden

Lodin, Isak and Eriksson Ljusk, Ola and Forsell, Nicklas and Korosuo, Anu (2020). Combining Climate Change Mitigation Scenarios with Current Forest Owner Behavior: A Scenario Study from a Region in Southern Sweden. Forests. 11 , 346 , 1-27
[Journal article]

[img] PDF - Published Version
3MB

Abstract

This study investigates the need for change of current forest management approaches in a southern Swedish region within the context of future climate change mitigation through empirically derived projections, rather than forest management according to silvicultural guidelines. Scenarios indicate that climate change mitigation will increase global wood demand. This might call for adjustments of well-established management approaches. This study investigates to what extent increasing wood demands in three climate change mitigation scenarios can be satisfied with current forest management approaches of different intensities in a southern Swedish region. Forest management practices in Kronoberg County were mapped through interviews, statistics, and desk research and were translated into five different management strategies with different intensities regulating management at the property level. The consequences of current practices, as well as their intensification, were analyzed with the Heureka Planwise forest planning system in combination with a specially developed forest owner decision simulator. Projections were done over a 100-year period under three climate change mitigation scenarios developed with the Global Biosphere Management Model (GLOBIUM). Current management practices could meet scenario demands during the first 20 years. This was followed by a shortage of wood during two periods in all scenarios unless rotations were reduced. In a longer timeframe, the wood demands were projected to be easily satisfied in the less ambitious climate change mitigation scenarios. In contrast, the demand in the ambitious mitigation scenario could not be met with current management practices, not even if all owners managed their production forests at the intensive extreme of current management approaches. The climate change mitigation scenarios provide very different trajectories with respect to future drivers of forest management. Our results indicate that with less ambitious mitigation efforts, the relatively intensive practices in the study region can be softened while ambitious mitigation might push for further intensification.

Authors/Creators:Lodin, Isak and Eriksson Ljusk, Ola and Forsell, Nicklas and Korosuo, Anu
Title:Combining Climate Change Mitigation Scenarios with Current Forest Owner Behavior: A Scenario Study from a Region in Southern Sweden
Year of publishing :2020
Volume:11
Article number:346
Number of Pages:27
Publisher:MDPI
ISSN:1999-4907
Language:English
Publication Type:Journal article
Article category:Scientific peer reviewed
Version:Published version
Copyright:Creative Commons: Attribution 4.0
Full Text Status:Public
Subjects:(A) Swedish standard research categories 2011 > 4 Agricultural Sciences > 401 Agricultural, Forestry and Fisheries > Forest Science
(A) Swedish standard research categories 2011 > 5 Social Sciences > 502 Economics and Business > Business Administration
Keywords:climate change mitigation scenarios, wood demand, forest management, small-scale forest owners, management strategies, forest owner behavior, decision support systems
URN:NBN:urn:nbn:se:slu:epsilon-p-106428
Permanent URL:
http://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:slu:epsilon-p-106428
Additional ID:
Type of IDID
DOI10.3390/f11030346
Web of Science (WoS)000530221500096
ID Code:17163
Faculty:S - Faculty of Forest Sciences
Department:(S) > Dept. of Forest Resource Management
(NL, NJ) > Dept. of Forest Resource Management

(S) > Southern Swedish Forest Research Centre
Deposited By: SLUpub Connector
Deposited On:02 Jul 2020 10:50
Metadata Last Modified:02 Jul 2020 10:50

Repository Staff Only: item control page

Downloads

Downloads per year (since September 2012)

View more statistics

Downloads
Hits