Grabs, T. and Xu, C. Y. and Seibert, Jan and Reynolds, J. E. and Halldin, S.
(2020).
Flood prediction using parameters calibrated on limited discharge data and uncertain rainfall scenarios.
Hydrological Sciences Journal. 65
, 1512-1524
[Journal article]
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Abstract
Discharge observations and reliable rainfall forecasts are essential for flood prediction but their availability and accuracy are often limited. However, even scarce data may still allow adequate flood forecasts to be made. Here, we explored how far using limited discharge calibration data and uncertain forcing data would affect the performance of a bucket-type hydrological model for simulating floods in a tropical basin. Three events above thresholds with a high and a low frequency of occurrence were used in calibration and 81 rainfall scenarios with different degrees of uncertainty were used as input to assess their effects on flood predictions. Relatively similar model performance was found when using calibrated parameters based on a few events above different thresholds. Flood predictions were sensitive to rainfall errors, but those related to volume had a larger impact. The results of this study indicate that a limited number of events can be useful for predicting floods given uncertain rainfall forecasts.
Authors/Creators: | Grabs, T. and Xu, C. Y. and Seibert, Jan and Reynolds, J. E. and Halldin, S. | ||||||
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Title: | Flood prediction using parameters calibrated on limited discharge data and uncertain rainfall scenarios | ||||||
Series Name/Journal: | Hydrological Sciences Journal | ||||||
Year of publishing : | 2020 | ||||||
Volume: | 65 | ||||||
Page range: | 1512-1524 | ||||||
Number of Pages: | 13 | ||||||
Publisher: | Taylor & Francis | ||||||
ISSN: | 0262-6667 | ||||||
Language: | English | ||||||
Publication Type: | Journal article | ||||||
Article category: | Scientific peer reviewed | ||||||
Version: | Published version | ||||||
Copyright: | Creative Commons: Attribution-Noncommercial-No Derivative Works 4.0 | ||||||
Full Text Status: | Public | ||||||
Subjects: | (A) Swedish standard research categories 2011 > 1 Natural sciences > 105 Earth and Related Environmental Sciences > Oceanography, Hydrology, Water Resources | ||||||
Keywords: | floods, rainfall forecasts, rainfall-runoff modelling, event-based calibration, ungauged basins, value of information | ||||||
URN:NBN: | urn:nbn:se:slu:epsilon-p-105769 | ||||||
Permanent URL: | http://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:slu:epsilon-p-105769 | ||||||
Additional ID: |
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ID Code: | 17248 | ||||||
Faculty: | NJ - Fakulteten för naturresurser och jordbruksvetenskap | ||||||
Department: | (NL, NJ) > Dept. of Aquatic Sciences and Assessment | ||||||
Deposited By: | SLUpub Connector | ||||||
Deposited On: | 10 Jul 2020 10:44 | ||||||
Metadata Last Modified: | 15 Jan 2021 19:21 |
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