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Downscaling of Long-Term Global Scenarios to Regions with a Forest Sector Model

Eriksson Ljusk, Ola and Forsell, Nicklas and Eggers, Jeannette and Snäll, Tord (2020). Downscaling of Long-Term Global Scenarios to Regions with a Forest Sector Model. Forests. 11 , 500 , 1-30
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Abstract

Research Highlights: Long-term global scenarios give insights on how social and economic developments and international agreements may impact land use, trade, product markets, and carbon balances. They form a valuable basis for forming national forest policies. Many aspects related to long-term management of forests and consequences for biodiversity and ecosystem services can only be addressed at regional and landscape levels. In order to be attended to in the policy process, there is a need for a method that downscales national scenarios to these finer levels.
Background and Objectives: Regional framework conditions depend on management activities in the country as a whole. The aim of this study is to evaluate the use of a forest sector model (FSM) as a method for downscaling national scenarios results to regional level. The national FSM takes the global scenario data (e.g., harvest level and market prices over time) and solves the national problem. The result for the region of interest is taken as framework conditions for the regional study.
Materials and Methods: Two different specifications are tested. One lets product volumes and prices represent endogenous variables in the FSM model. The other takes volumes and prices from the global scenario as exogenous parameters. The first specification attains a maximum net social payoff whereas the second specification means that net present value is maximized under a harvest constraint.
Results: The maximum net social payoff specification conforms better to economic factors than the maximum net present value specification but could give national harvest volume trajectories that deviates from what is derived from the global model. This means that regional harvest activity can deviate considerably from the national average, attesting to the benefit of the use of the FSM-based method

Authors/Creators:Eriksson Ljusk, Ola and Forsell, Nicklas and Eggers, Jeannette and Snäll, Tord
Title:Downscaling of Long-Term Global Scenarios to Regions with a Forest Sector Model
Year of publishing :2020
Volume:11
Article number:500
Number of Pages:30
Publisher:MDPI
ISSN:1999-4907
Language:English
Publication Type:Journal article
Article category:Scientific peer reviewed
Version:Published version
Copyright:Creative Commons: Attribution 4.0
Full Text Status:Public
Subjects:(A) Swedish standard research categories 2011 > 4 Agricultural Sciences > 401 Agricultural, Forestry and Fisheries > Forest Science
Keywords:scenario, global forest model forest sector, partial equilibrium model, forest region, green infrastructure
URN:NBN:urn:nbn:se:slu:epsilon-p-106912
Permanent URL:
http://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:slu:epsilon-p-106912
Additional ID:
Type of IDID
DOI10.3390/f11050500
Web of Science (WoS)000542736000049
ID Code:17330
Faculty:NJ - Fakulteten för naturresurser och jordbruksvetenskap
S - Faculty of Forest Sciences
Department:(NL, NJ) > Swedish Species Information Centre
(S) > Dept. of Forest Resource Management
(NL, NJ) > Dept. of Forest Resource Management
Deposited By: SLUpub Connector
Deposited On:28 Aug 2020 07:27
Metadata Last Modified:28 Aug 2020 07:27

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