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Potential for using guest attendance forecasting in Swedish public catering to reduce overcatering

Malefors, Christopher and Strid, Ingrid and Hansson, Per-Anders and Eriksson, Mattias (2021). Potential for using guest attendance forecasting in Swedish public catering to reduce overcatering. Sustainable Production and Consumption. 25 , 162-172
[Journal article]

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Abstract

Food waste is a significant problem within public catering establishments, caused mainly by serving waste arising from overcatering. Overcatering means that public catering establishments rarely run out of food but surplus ends up as food waste. The challenge is to find a solution that minimizes food waste while ensuring that sufficient food can be provided. A key element in this balancing act is to forecast accurately the number of meals needed and cook that amount. This study examined conventional forecasting methods (last-value forecasting, moving-average models) and more complex models (prophet model, neural network model) and calculated associated margins for all models. The best-performing model for each catering establishment was then used to evaluate the optimal number of portions based on stochastic inventory theory. Data used in the forecasting models are number of portions registered at 21 schools in the period 2010–2019. The past year was used for testing the models against real observations. The current business as usual scenario results in a mean average percentage error of 20–40%, whereas the best forecasting case around 2–3%. Irrespective of forecasting method, meal planning needed some safety margin in place for days when demand exceeded the forecast level. Conventional forecasting methods were simple to use and provided the best results in seven cases, but the neural network model performed best for 11 out of 21 kitchens studied. Forecasting can be one option on the road to achieve a more sustainable public catering sector.

Authors/Creators:Malefors, Christopher and Strid, Ingrid and Hansson, Per-Anders and Eriksson, Mattias
Title:Potential for using guest attendance forecasting in Swedish public catering to reduce overcatering
Year of publishing :2021
Volume:25
Page range:162-172
Number of Pages:11
Publisher:Elsevier
Language:English
Publication Type:Journal article
Article category:Scientific peer reviewed
Version:Published version
Copyright:Creative Commons: Attribution 4.0
Full Text Status:Public
Subjects:(A) Swedish standard research categories 2011 > 2 Engineering and Technology > 207 Environmental Engineering > Environmental Management
(A) Swedish standard research categories 2011 > 4 Agricultural Sciences > 401 Agricultural, Forestry and Fisheries > Food Science
(A) Swedish standard research categories 2011 > 1 Natural sciences > 101 Mathematics > 10106 Probability Theory and Statistics
Keywords:Food waste, School kitchens, Inventory model, Forecasting, Neural network approach, System optimization
URN:NBN:urn:nbn:se:slu:epsilon-p-107238
Permanent URL:
http://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:slu:epsilon-p-107238
Additional ID:
Type of IDID
DOI10.1016/j.spc.2020.08.008
ID Code:17485
Faculty:NJ - Fakulteten för naturresurser och jordbruksvetenskap
Department:(NL, NJ) > Dept. of Energy and Technology
Deposited By: SLUpub Connector
Deposited On:22 Sep 2020 08:40
Metadata Last Modified:22 Sep 2020 08:40

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