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Modelling spread and surveillance of Mycobacterium avium subsp. paratuberculosis in the Swedish cattle trade network

Rosendal, Thomas and Widgren, Stefan and Ståhl, Karl and Frössling, Jenny (2020). Modelling spread and surveillance of Mycobacterium avium subsp. paratuberculosis in the Swedish cattle trade network. Preventive Veterinary Medicine. 183 , 105152
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Abstract

To monitor a state of disease freedom and to ensure a timely detection of new introductions of disease, surveillance programmes need be evaluated prior to implementation. We present a strategy to evaluate surveillance of Mycobacterium avium subsp. paratuberculosis (MAP) using simulated testing of bulk milk in an infectious disease spread model. MAP is a globally distributed, chronic infectious disease with substantial animal health impact. Designing surveillance for this disease poses specific challenges because methods for surveillance evaluation have focused on estimating surveillance system sensitivity and probability of freedom from disease and do not account for spread of disease or complex and changing population structure over long periods. The aims of the study were to 1. define a model that describes the spread of MAP within and between Swedish herds; 2. define a method for simulation of imperfect diagnostic testing in this framework; 3. to compare surveillance strategies to support surveillance design choices. The results illustrate how this approach can be used to identify differences between the probability of detecting disease in the population based on choices of the number of herds sampled and the use of risk-based or random selection of these herds. The approach was also used to assess surveillance to detect introduction of disease and to detect a very low prevalence endemic state. The use of bulk milk sampling was determined to be an effective method to detect MAP in the population with as few as 500 herds tested per year if the herd-level prevalence was 0.2 %. However, detection of point introductions in the population was unlikely in the 13-year simulation period even if as many as 2000 herds were tested per year. Interestingly, the use of a risk-based selection strategy was found to be a disadvantage to detect MAP given the modelled disease dynamics.

Authors/Creators:Rosendal, Thomas and Widgren, Stefan and Ståhl, Karl and Frössling, Jenny
Title:Modelling spread and surveillance of Mycobacterium avium subsp. paratuberculosis in the Swedish cattle trade network
Series Name/Journal:Preventive Veterinary Medicine
Year of publishing :2020
Volume:183
Article number:105152
Number of Pages:10
Publisher:ELSEVIER
ISSN:0167-5877
Language:English
Publication Type:Journal article
Article category:Scientific peer reviewed
Version:Published version
Copyright:Creative Commons: Attribution-Noncommercial-No Derivative Works 4.0
Full Text Status:Public
Subjects:(A) Swedish standard research categories 2011 > 4 Agricultural Sciences > 403 Veterinary Science > Clinical Science
(A) Swedish standard research categories 2011 > 4 Agricultural Sciences > 402 Animal and Dairy Science > Animal and Dairy Science.
Keywords:Surveillance evaluation, Surveillance evaluation, Infectious disease modelling, John's disease, Bulk milk
URN:NBN:urn:nbn:se:slu:epsilon-p-109008
Permanent URL:
http://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:slu:epsilon-p-109008
Additional ID:
Type of IDID
DOI10.1016/j.prevetmed.2020.105152
Web of Science (WoS)000579919400027
ID Code:19099
Faculty:VH - Faculty of Veterinary Medicine and Animal Science
Department:(VH) > Dept. of Animal Environment and Health
Deposited By: SLUpub Connector
Deposited On:03 Dec 2020 12:23
Metadata Last Modified:15 Jan 2021 19:45

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