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The influence of data uncertainty on planning and decision processes in forest management

Duvemo, Karl (2009). The influence of data uncertainty on planning and decision processes in forest management. Diss. (sammanfattning/summary) Umeå : Sveriges lantbruksuniv., Acta Universitatis agriculturae Sueciae, 1652-6880 ; 2009:6
ISBN 978-91-86195-53-3
[Doctoral thesis]

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Abstract

This thesis focuses on how uncertainty in forest data affects the outcome of management planning and decision making. In a review article (paper I), previous research aiming to evaluate forestry data are described. The methodology used and the results presented were discussed. A general conclusion was that previous studies concerned highly simplified planning situations, leaving some doubts concerning their real world applicability. In papers II and III, two quantitative approaches of data evaluation were applied to data from sample plot imputations. In paper II, a cost plus loss analysis of using the data for forest management decision making is presented. The usefulness of the data in forestry scenario analysis were scrutinized in paper III as errors in the predictions of future forest states, harvest levels and net income flow. In both papers it was concluded that improvements in the methodology of assessing data would be required. In paper IV, an advance of the cost-plus-loss methodology was suggested by developing a simulation system that aims to capture the hierarchical structure and iterative nature of forestry planning. The simulation system included the tactical and operational levels of a continuous planning process at a specific corporate forest owner. It was characterized by annual re-planning with the option to reassess data of selected stands prior to operational planning. The planning simulation system was used in paper V for evaluation of current practice data. It was concluded that high decision losses occurred as a result of errors in the studied data. The introduction of holding level wood-flow considerations and incitements to cluster harvest activities reduced decision losses compared to stand wise planning without such considerations.

Authors/Creators:Duvemo, Karl
Title:The influence of data uncertainty on planning and decision processes in forest management
Year of publishing :2009
Volume:2009:6
Number of Pages:59
Papers/manuscripts:
NumberReferences
ALLI Duvemo, K., Lämås, T. (2006). The influence of forest data quality on planning processes in forestry. Scandinavian Journal of Forest Research 21, 327-339. II Duvemo, K. Barth, A. Wallerman, J. (2007). Evaluating sample plot imputation techniques as input in forest management planning. Canadian Journal of Forest Research 37, 2069-2079. III Barth, A., Duvemo, K., Wallerman, J. Evaluation of sample-plot imputations in sub-national forestry scenario analyses (manuscript). IV Duvemo, K., Eriksson, L.O., Lämås, T., Wikström, P. Introducing cost plus loss analysis into a hierarchical forestry planning environment (manuscript). V Duvemo, K. Wikström, P., Eriksson, L.O., Lämås, T. Cost plus loss analysis of current practice data in a large scale hierarchical forestry planning situation (manuscript).
Place of Publication:Umeå
ISBN for printed version:978-91-86195-53-3
ISSN:1652-6880
Language:English
Publication Type:Doctoral thesis
Full Text Status:Public
Agrovoc terms:forest inventories, planning, decision making, data analysis
Keywords:Forest inventory, data evaluation, cost plus loss analysis, tactical planning, operational planning, decision support system, simulation of data errors, optimization
URN:NBN:urn:nbn:se:slu:epsilon-2722
Permanent URL:
http://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:slu:epsilon-2722
ID Code:1924
Department:(S) > Dept. of Forest Resource Management
(NL, NJ) > Dept. of Forest Resource Management
Deposited By: Karl Duvemo
Deposited On:03 Feb 2009 00:00
Metadata Last Modified:02 Dec 2014 10:15

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