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Agent-based models predict patterns and identify constraints of large carnivore recolonizations, a case study of wolves in Scandinavia

Rodriguez Recio, Mariano and Singer, Alexander and Wabakken, Petter and Sand, Håkan (2020). Agent-based models predict patterns and identify constraints of large carnivore recolonizations, a case study of wolves in Scandinavia. Biological Conservation. 251 , 108752
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Abstract

Large carnivores are recolonizing areas of their historical range in Europe. This process has strong implications for conservation and management related to human-wildlife conflicts. Analyses and modelling of the observed mechanisms of spatial expansion can predict recolonization patterns under human influences. We demonstrate how spatially-explicit, agent-based models can assist to identify and predict how humans impact shape large carnivore recolonizations. Using detailed data obtained through long-term surveillance of wolf territories, we identified the mechanisms of recolonization and predicted the spatio-temporal patterns of expansion of the wolf in the Scandinavian Peninsula. We disentangled the observed mechanisms of expansion to develop WOLVES (Wolf Virtual Expansion Simulator), an agent-based model software. We applied the model to investigate in silico the observed lack of wolf recolonization into the suitable but densely human-populated area of southern Sweden and projected the expansion into the future. We tested the impact of traffic barriers and territory termination (wolf mortality most likely due to culling and poaching) on the observed recolonization in the south. Simulations identified that traffic infrastructures impacted only at configurations of insurmountable barriers unlikely to occur in Scandinavia, while low rates of territory termination had a major impact on the recolonization. Simulating until 2030 predicts that wolves will not colonize southern Sweden, which highlights the complexities of this process in areas of increased human-influence. The capability of simulators to test hypotheses and discriminate constraints of future population development makes them a valuable tool for ecologists, managers, and decision-makers involved in regional and transboundary conservation challenges of large carnivore recolonizations.

Authors/Creators:Rodriguez Recio, Mariano and Singer, Alexander and Wabakken, Petter and Sand, Håkan
Title:Agent-based models predict patterns and identify constraints of large carnivore recolonizations, a case study of wolves in Scandinavia
Series Name/Journal:Biological Conservation
Year of publishing :2020
Volume:251
Article number:108752
Number of Pages:9
Publisher:ELSEVIER SCI LTD
ISSN:0006-3207
Language:English
Publication Type:Journal article
Article category:Scientific peer reviewed
Version:Published version
Copyright:Creative Commons: Attribution 4.0
Full Text Status:Public
Subjects:(A) Swedish standard research categories 2011 > 1 Natural sciences > 106 Biological Sciences (Medical to be 3 and Agricultural to be 4) > Ecology
Keywords:Large carnivores, Recolonization, Agent-based models, Wolf, Culling, Poaching, Traffic infrastructures
URN:NBN:urn:nbn:se:slu:epsilon-p-109297
Permanent URL:
http://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:slu:epsilon-p-109297
Additional ID:
Type of IDID
DOI10.1016/j.biocon.2020.108752
Web of Science (WoS)000587339000004
ID Code:19755
Faculty:NJ - Fakulteten för naturresurser och jordbruksvetenskap
S - Faculty of Forest Sciences
Department:(NL, NJ) > Dept. of Ecology
(S) > Dept. of Ecology

(NL, NJ) > Swedish Species Information Centre
Deposited By: SLUpub Connector
Deposited On:21 Dec 2020 14:23
Metadata Last Modified:15 Jan 2021 19:45

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