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Estimating and forecasting spatial population dynamics of apex predators using transnational genetic monitoring

Bischof, Richard and Milleret, Cyril and Dupont, Pierre and Chipperfield, Joseph and Tourani, Mahdieh and Ordiz, Andrés and de Valpine, Perry and Turek, Daniel and Royle, J. Andrew and Gimenez, Olivier and Flagstad, Oystein and Åkesson, Mikael and Svensson, Linn and Broseth, Henrik and Kindberg, Jonas (2020). Estimating and forecasting spatial population dynamics of apex predators using transnational genetic monitoring. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America. 117 , 30531-30538
[Research article]

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Abstract

The ongoing recovery of terrestrial large carnivores in North America and Europe is accompanied by intense controversy. On the one hand, reestablishment of large carnivores entails a recovery of their most important ecological role, predation. On the other hand, societies are struggling to relearn how to live with apex predators that kill livestock, compete for game species, and occasionally injure or kill people. Those responsible for managing these species and mitigating conflict often lack fundamental information due to a long-standing challenge in ecology: How do we draw robust population-level inferences for elusive animals spread over immense areas? Here we showcase the application of an effective tool for spatially explicit tracking and forecasting of wildlife population dynamics at scales that are relevant to management and conservation. We analyzed the world's largest dataset on carnivores comprising more than 35,000 noninvasively obtained DNA samples from over 6,000 individual brown bears (Ursus arctos), gray wolves (Canis lupus), and wolverines (Gulo gulo). Our analyses took into account that not all individuals are detected and, even if detected, their fates are not always known. We show unequivocal quantitative evidence of large carnivore recovery in northern Europe, juxtaposed with the finding that humans are the single-most important factor driving the dynamics of these apex predators. We present maps and forecasts of the spatiotemporal dynamics of large carnivore populations, transcending national boundaries and management regimes.

Authors/Creators:Bischof, Richard and Milleret, Cyril and Dupont, Pierre and Chipperfield, Joseph and Tourani, Mahdieh and Ordiz, Andrés and de Valpine, Perry and Turek, Daniel and Royle, J. Andrew and Gimenez, Olivier and Flagstad, Oystein and Åkesson, Mikael and Svensson, Linn and Broseth, Henrik and Kindberg, Jonas
Title:Estimating and forecasting spatial population dynamics of apex predators using transnational genetic monitoring
Series Name/Journal:Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America
Year of publishing :2020
Volume:117
Page range:30531-30538
Number of Pages:8
Publisher:NATL ACAD SCIENCES
ISSN:0027-8424
Language:English
Publication Type:Research article
Article category:Scientific peer reviewed
Version:Published version
Copyright:Creative Commons: Attribution-Noncommercial-No Derivative Works 4.0
Full Text Status:Public
Subjects:(A) Swedish standard research categories 2011 > 1 Natural sciences > 106 Biological Sciences (Medical to be 3 and Agricultural to be 4) > Ecology
Keywords:spatial capture-recapture, imperfect detection, noninvasive monitoring of large carnivores, density surface, vital rates
URN:NBN:urn:nbn:se:slu:epsilon-p-109947
Permanent URL:
http://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:slu:epsilon-p-109947
Additional ID:
Type of IDID
DOI10.1073/pnas.2011383117
Web of Science (WoS)000596476100002
ID Code:21273
Faculty:NJ - Fakulteten för naturresurser och jordbruksvetenskap
S - Faculty of Forest Sciences
Department:(NL, NJ) > Dept. of Ecology
(S) > Dept. of Ecology

(S) > Dept. of Wildlife, Fish and Environmental Studies
Deposited By: SLUpub Connector
Deposited On:19 Jan 2021 11:03
Metadata Last Modified:19 Jan 2021 11:11

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