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Downsizing parameter ensembles for simulations of rare floods

Sikorska-Senoner, Anna E. and Schaefli, Bettina and Seibert, Jan (2020). Downsizing parameter ensembles for simulations of rare floods. Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences. 20 , 3521-3549
[Research article]

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Abstract

For extreme-flood estimation, simulation-based approaches represent an interesting alternative to purely statistical approaches, particularly if hydrograph shapes are required. Such simulation-based methods are adapted within continuous simulation frameworks that rely on statistical analyses of continuous streamflow time series derived from a hydrological model fed with long precipitation time series. These frameworks are, however, affected by high computational demands, particularly if floods with return periods > 1000 years are of interest or if modelling uncertainty due to different sources (meteorological input or hydrological model) is to be quantified. Here, we propose three methods for reducing the computational requirements for the hydrological simulations for extreme-flood estimation so that long streamflow time series can be analysed at a reduced computational cost. These methods rely on simulation of annual maxima and on analysing their simulated range to downsize the hydrological parameter ensemble to a small number suitable for continuous simulation frameworks. The methods are tested in a Swiss catchment with 10 000 years of synthetic streamflow data simulated thanks to a weather generator. Our results demonstrate the reliability of the proposed downsizing methods for robust simulations of rare floods with uncertainty. The methods are readily transferable to other situations where ensemble simulations are needed.

Authors/Creators:Sikorska-Senoner, Anna E. and Schaefli, Bettina and Seibert, Jan
Title:Downsizing parameter ensembles for simulations of rare floods
Series Name/Journal:Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences
Year of publishing :2020
Volume:20
Page range:3521-3549
Number of Pages:29
Publisher:COPERNICUS GESELLSCHAFT MBH
ISSN:1561-8633
Language:English
Publication Type:Research article
Article category:Scientific peer reviewed
Version:Published version
Copyright:Creative Commons: Attribution 4.0
Full Text Status:Public
Subjects:(A) Swedish standard research categories 2011 > 1 Natural sciences > 105 Earth and Related Environmental Sciences > Oceanography, Hydrology, Water Resources
URN:NBN:urn:nbn:se:slu:epsilon-p-110090
Permanent URL:
http://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:slu:epsilon-p-110090
Additional ID:
Type of IDID
DOI10.5194/nhess-20-3521-2020
Web of Science (WoS)000600281000002
ID Code:21434
Faculty:NJ - Fakulteten för naturresurser och jordbruksvetenskap
Department:(NL, NJ) > Dept. of Aquatic Sciences and Assessment
Deposited By: SLUpub Connector
Deposited On:21 Jan 2021 11:03
Metadata Last Modified:21 Jan 2021 11:11

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