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The missing pieces for better future predictions in subarctic ecosystems: A Tornetrask case study

Pascual, Didac and Akerman, Jonas and Becher, Marina and Callaghan, Terry V. and Christensen, Torben R. and Dorrepaal, Ellen and Emanuelsson, Urban and Giesler, Reiner and Hammarlund, Dan and Hanna, Edward and Hofgaard, Annika and Jin, Hongxiao and Johansson, Cecilia and Jonasson, Christer and Klaminder, Jonatan and Karlsson, Jan and Lundin, Erik and Michelsen, Anders and Olefeldt, David and Persson, Andreas and Phoenix, Gareth K. and Rączkowska, Zofia and Rinnan, Riikka and Strom, Lena and Tang, Jing and Varner, Ruth K. and Wookey, Philip and Johansson, Margareta (2021). The missing pieces for better future predictions in subarctic ecosystems: A Tornetrask case study. AMBIO: A Journal of the Human Environment. 50 , 375-392
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Abstract

Arctic and subarctic ecosystems are experiencing substantial changes in hydrology, vegetation, permafrost conditions, and carbon cycling, in response to climatic change and other anthropogenic drivers, and these changes are likely to continue over this century. The total magnitude of these changes results from multiple interactions among these drivers. Field measurements can address the overall responses to different changing drivers, but are less capable of quantifying the interactions among them. Currently, a comprehensive assessment of the drivers of ecosystem changes, and the magnitude of their direct and indirect impacts on subarctic ecosystems, is missing. The Tornetrask area, in the Swedish subarctic, has an unrivalled history of environmental observation over 100 years, and is one of the most studied sites in the Arctic. In this study, we summarize and rank the drivers of ecosystem change in the Tornetrask area, and propose research priorities identified, by expert assessment, to improve predictions of ecosystem changes. The research priorities identified include understanding impacts on ecosystems brought on by altered frequency and intensity of winter warming events, evapotranspiration rates, rainfall, duration of snow cover and lake-ice, changed soil moisture, and droughts. This case study can help us understand the ongoing ecosystem changes occurring in the Tornetrask area, and contribute to improve predictions of future ecosystem changes at a larger scale. This understanding will provide the basis for the future mitigation and adaptation plans needed in a changing climate.

Authors/Creators:Pascual, Didac and Akerman, Jonas and Becher, Marina and Callaghan, Terry V. and Christensen, Torben R. and Dorrepaal, Ellen and Emanuelsson, Urban and Giesler, Reiner and Hammarlund, Dan and Hanna, Edward and Hofgaard, Annika and Jin, Hongxiao and Johansson, Cecilia and Jonasson, Christer and Klaminder, Jonatan and Karlsson, Jan and Lundin, Erik and Michelsen, Anders and Olefeldt, David and Persson, Andreas and Phoenix, Gareth K. and Rączkowska, Zofia and Rinnan, Riikka and Strom, Lena and Tang, Jing and Varner, Ruth K. and Wookey, Philip and Johansson, Margareta
Title:The missing pieces for better future predictions in subarctic ecosystems: A Tornetrask case study
Series Name/Journal:AMBIO: A Journal of the Human Environment
Year of publishing :2021
Volume:50
Page range:375-392
Number of Pages:18
Publisher:SPRINGER
ISSN:0044-7447
Language:English
Publication Type:Article Review/Survey
Article category:Scientific peer reviewed
Version:Published version
Copyright:Creative Commons: Attribution 4.0
Full Text Status:Public
Subjects:(A) Swedish standard research categories 2011 > 1 Natural sciences > 106 Biological Sciences (Medical to be 3 and Agricultural to be 4) > Ecology
Keywords:Abiotic drivers, Arctic and subarctic, Biotic drivers, Ecosystem change, Research priorities
URN:NBN:urn:nbn:se:slu:epsilon-p-108092
Permanent URL:
http://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:slu:epsilon-p-108092
Additional ID:
Type of IDID
DOI10.1007/s13280-020-01381-1
Web of Science (WoS)000568974700002
ID Code:22165
Faculty:NJ - Fakulteten för naturresurser och jordbruksvetenskap
Department:(NL, NJ) > Swedish Biodiversity Centre
Deposited By: SLUpub Connector
Deposited On:09 Feb 2021 08:17
Metadata Last Modified:09 Feb 2021 08:21

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