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Accounting for species interactions is necessary for predicting how arctic arthropod communities respond to climate change

Abrego, Nerea and Roslin, Tomas and Huotari, Tea and Ji, Yinqiu and Schmidt, Niels Martin and Wang, Jiaxin and Yu, Douglas W. and Ovaskainen, Otso (2021). Accounting for species interactions is necessary for predicting how arctic arthropod communities respond to climate change. Ecography. 44 , 885-896
[Research article]

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Abstract

Species interactions are known to structure ecological communities. Still, the influence of climate change on biodiversity has primarily been evaluated by correlating individual species distributions with local climatic descriptors, then extrapolating into future climate scenarios. We ask whether predictions on arctic arthropod response to climate change can be improved by accounting for species interactions. For this, we use a 14-year-long, weekly time series from Greenland, resolved to the species level by mitogenome mapping. During the study period, temperature increased by 2 degrees C and arthropod species richness halved. We show that with abiotic variables alone, we are essentially unable to predict species responses, but with species interactions included, the predictive power of the models improves considerably. Cascading trophic effects thereby emerge as important in structuring biodiversity response to climate change. Given the need to scale up from species-level to community-level projections of biodiversity change, these results represent a major step forward for predictive ecology.

Authors/Creators:Abrego, Nerea and Roslin, Tomas and Huotari, Tea and Ji, Yinqiu and Schmidt, Niels Martin and Wang, Jiaxin and Yu, Douglas W. and Ovaskainen, Otso
Title:Accounting for species interactions is necessary for predicting how arctic arthropod communities respond to climate change
Series Name/Journal:Ecography
Year of publishing :2021
Volume:44
Page range:885-896
Number of Pages:12
Publisher:WILEY
ISSN:0906-7590
Language:English
Publication Type:Research article
Article category:Scientific peer reviewed
Version:Published version
Copyright:Creative Commons: Attribution 4.0
Full Text Status:Public
Subjects:(A) Swedish standard research categories 2011 > 1 Natural sciences > 106 Biological Sciences (Medical to be 3 and Agricultural to be 4) > Ecology
(A) Swedish standard research categories 2011 > 1 Natural sciences > 105 Earth and Related Environmental Sciences > Climate Research
Keywords:Arctic, Arthropoda, climate change, community assembly, food web, joint species distribution model, trophic cascade
URN:NBN:urn:nbn:se:slu:epsilon-p-111265
Permanent URL:
http://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:slu:epsilon-p-111265
Additional ID:
Type of IDID
DOI10.1111/ecog.05547
Web of Science (WoS)000631204300001
ID Code:24339
Faculty:NJ - Fakulteten för naturresurser och jordbruksvetenskap
Department:(NL, NJ) > Dept. of Ecology
(S) > Dept. of Ecology
Deposited By: SLUpub Connector
Deposited On:01 Jun 2021 12:03
Metadata Last Modified:01 Jun 2021 12:11

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