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Model analysis of temperature impact on the Norway spruce provenance specific bud burst and associated risk of frost damage

Svystun, Tetiana and Lundströmer, Jenny and Berlin, Mats and Westin, Johan and Jönsson, Anna Maria (2021). Model analysis of temperature impact on the Norway spruce provenance specific bud burst and associated risk of frost damage. Forest Ecology and Management. 493 , 119252
[Research article]

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Abstract

The annual growth cycle of boreal trees is synchronized with seasonal changes in photoperiod and temperature. A warmer climate can lead to an earlier bud burst and increased risk of frost damage caused by temperature backlashes. In this study we analysed site- and provenance specific responses to interannual variation in temperature, using data from 18 Swedish and East-European provenances of Norway spruce (Picea abies), grown in three different sites in southern Sweden. The temperature sum requirements for bud burst, estimated from the provenance trials, were correlated with the provenance specific place of origin, in terms of latitudinal and longitudinal gradients. Frost damage had a significant effect on tree height development. Earlier timing of bud burst was linked to a higher risk of frost damage, with one of the sites being more prone to spring frost than the other two. The estimated provenance specific temperature sum requirements for bud burst were used to parametrize a temperature sum model of bud burst timing, which was then used together with the ensemble of gridded climate model data (RCP8.5) to assess the climate change impact on bud burst and associated risk of frost damage. In this respect, the simulated timing of bud burst and occurrence of frost events for the periods 2021-2050 and 2071-2100 were compared with 1989-2018. In response to a warmer climate, the total number of frost events in southern Sweden will decrease, while the number of frost events after bud burst will increase due to earlier bud burst timing. The provenance specific assessments of frost risk under climate change can be used for a selection of seed sources in Swedish forestry. In terms of selecting suitable provenances, knowledge on local climate conditions is of importance, as the gridded climate data may differ from local temperature conditions. A comparison with temperature logger data from ten different sites indicated that the gridded temperature data were a good proxy for the daily mean temperatures, but the gridded daily minimum temperatures tended to underestimate the local risk of frost events, in particular at the measurements 0.5 m above ground representing the height of newly established seedlings.

Authors/Creators:Svystun, Tetiana and Lundströmer, Jenny and Berlin, Mats and Westin, Johan and Jönsson, Anna Maria
Title:Model analysis of temperature impact on the Norway spruce provenance specific bud burst and associated risk of frost damage
Series Name/Journal:Forest Ecology and Management
Year of publishing :2021
Volume:493
Article number:119252
Number of Pages:16
Publisher:ELSEVIER
ISSN:0378-1127
Language:English
Publication Type:Research article
Article category:Scientific peer reviewed
Version:Published version
Copyright:Creative Commons: Attribution-Noncommercial-No Derivative Works 4.0
Full Text Status:Public
Subjects:(A) Swedish standard research categories 2011 > 4 Agricultural Sciences > 401 Agricultural, Forestry and Fisheries > Forest Science
Keywords:Temperature response, Picea abies, Bud burst, Frost risk, Gridded climate data
URN:NBN:urn:nbn:se:slu:epsilon-p-112082
Permanent URL:
http://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:slu:epsilon-p-112082
Additional ID:
Type of IDID
DOI10.1016/j.foreco.2021.119252
Web of Science (WoS)000651206200009
ID Code:24391
Faculty:S - Faculty of Forest Sciences
Department:(S) > Dept. of Forest Genetics and Plant Physiology
(S) > Unit for Field-based Forest Research
Deposited By: SLUpub Connector
Deposited On:03 Jun 2021 14:04
Metadata Last Modified:03 Jun 2021 14:11

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