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Trends and patterns in annually burned forest areas and fire weather across the European boreal zone in the 20th and early 21st centuries

Drobyshev, Igor and Ryzhkova, Nina and Eden, Jonathan and Kitenberga, Mara and Pinto, Guilherme and Lindberg, Henrik and Krikken, Folmer and Yermokhin, Maxim and Bergeron, Yves (2021). Trends and patterns in annually burned forest areas and fire weather across the European boreal zone in the 20th and early 21st centuries. Agricultural and Forest Meteorology. 306 , 108467
[Research article]

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Abstract

Fire remains one of the main natural disturbance factors in the European boreal zone and understanding climatic forcing on fire activity is important for projecting effects of climate change on ecosystem services in this region. We analyzed records of annually burned areas in 16 administrative regions of the European boreal zone (countries or administrative units within countries) and fire weather variability to test for their spatio-temporal patterns over the 1901-2017 period.Over the 1992-2017 period, the region exhibited large variability in forest fire activity with the fire cycles varying from similar to 1600 (St. Petersburg region) to similar to 37000 years (Finland). The clustering of administrative units in respect to their burned area, suggested the presence of sub-regions with synchronous annual variability in burned areas. Large fire years (LFYs) in each of the clusters were associated with the development of the high pressure cell over or in immediate proximity of the regions in question in July, indicating climatic forcing of LFYs. Contingency analysis indicated that there was no long-term trend in the synchrony of LFYs observed simultaneously in several administrative units. We documented a trend towards higher values of Monthly Drought Code (MDC) for the months of April and May in the western (April) and northern (April and May) sections. The significant positive correlation between biome-wide fire activity index and June SNAO (Summer North Atlantic Oscillation) (r = 0.53) pointed to the importance of large-scale atmospheric circulation, in particular the summer European blocking pattern, in controlling forest fires across EBZ. The forest fire activity of the European boreal zone remains strongly connected to the annual climate variability. Higher frequency of strongly positive SNAO states in the future will likely synchronize years with a large area burned across the European boreal zone.

Authors/Creators:Drobyshev, Igor and Ryzhkova, Nina and Eden, Jonathan and Kitenberga, Mara and Pinto, Guilherme and Lindberg, Henrik and Krikken, Folmer and Yermokhin, Maxim and Bergeron, Yves
Title:Trends and patterns in annually burned forest areas and fire weather across the European boreal zone in the 20th and early 21st centuries
Series Name/Journal:Agricultural and Forest Meteorology
Year of publishing :2021
Volume:306
Article number:108467
Number of Pages:14
Publisher:ELSEVIER
ISSN:0168-1923
Language:English
Publication Type:Research article
Article category:Scientific peer reviewed
Version:Published version
Copyright:Creative Commons: Attribution 4.0
Full Text Status:Public
Subjects:(A) Swedish standard research categories 2011 > 4 Agricultural Sciences > 401 Agricultural, Forestry and Fisheries > Forest Science
Keywords:Forest fires, Disturbance regimes, Climate-fire interactions, Trends in drought conditions, Climate-related risks
URN:NBN:urn:nbn:se:slu:epsilon-p-112676
Permanent URL:
http://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:slu:epsilon-p-112676
Additional ID:
Type of IDID
DOI10.1016/j.agrformet.2021.108467
Web of Science (WoS)000659137200025
ID Code:24824
Faculty:S - Faculty of Forest Sciences
Department:(S) > Southern Swedish Forest Research Centre
Deposited By: SLUpub Connector
Deposited On:07 Jul 2021 15:27
Metadata Last Modified:07 Jul 2021 15:31

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