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Statistical upscaling of ecosystem CO2 fluxes across the terrestrial tundra and boreal domain: Regional patterns and uncertainties

Virkkala, Anna-Maria and Aalto, Juha and Rogers, Brendan M. and Tagesson, Torbern and Treat, Claire C. and Natali, Susan M. and Watts, Jennifer D. and Potter, Stefano and Lehtonen, Aleksi and Mauritz, Marguerite and Schuur, Edward A. G. and Kochendorfer, John and Zona, Donatella and Oechel, Walter and Kobayashi, Hideki and Humphreys, Elyn and Goeckede, Mathias and Iwata, Hiroki and Lafleur, Peter M. and Euskirchen, Eugenie S. and Bokhorst, Stef and Marushchak, Maija and Martikainen, Pertti J. and Elberling, Bo and Voigt, Carolina and Biasi, Christina and Sonnentag, Oliver and Parmentier, Frans-Jan W. and Ueyama, Masahito and Celis, Gerardo and St.Louis, Vincent L. and Emmerton, Craig A. and Peichl, Matthias and Chi, Jinshu and Järveoja, Järvi and Nilsson, Mats and Oberbauer, Steven F. and Torn, Margaret S. and Park, Sang-Jong and Dolman, Han and Mammarella, Ivan and Chae, Namyi and Poyatos, Rafael and Lopez-Blanco, Efren and Christensen, Torben Rojle and Kwon, Min Jung and Sachs, Torsten and Holl, David and Luoto, Miska (2021). Statistical upscaling of ecosystem CO2 fluxes across the terrestrial tundra and boreal domain: Regional patterns and uncertainties. Global Change Biology. 27 , 4040-4059
[Research article]

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Abstract

The regional variability in tundra and boreal carbon dioxide (CO2) fluxes can be high, complicating efforts to quantify sink-source patterns across the entire region. Statistical models are increasingly used to predict (i.e., upscale) CO2 fluxes across large spatial domains, but the reliability of different modeling techniques, each with different specifications and assumptions, has not been assessed in detail. Here, we compile eddy covariance and chamber measurements of annual and growing season CO2 fluxes of gross primary productivity (GPP), ecosystem respiration (ER), and net ecosystem exchange (NEE) during 1990-2015 from 148 terrestrial high-latitude (i.e., tundra and boreal) sites to analyze the spatial patterns and drivers of CO2 fluxes and test the accuracy and uncertainty of different statistical models. CO2 fluxes were upscaled at relatively high spatial resolution (1 km(2)) across the high-latitude region using five commonly used statistical models and their ensemble, that is, the median of all five models, using climatic, vegetation, and soil predictors. We found the performance of machine learning and ensemble predictions to outperform traditional regression methods. We also found the predictive performance of NEE-focused models to be low, relative to models predicting GPP and ER. Our data compilation and ensemble predictions showed that CO2 sink strength was larger in the boreal biome (observed and predicted average annual NEE -46 and -29 g C m(-2) yr(-1), respectively) compared to tundra (average annual NEE +10 and -2 g C m(-2) yr(-1)). This pattern was associated with large spatial variability, reflecting local heterogeneity in soil organic carbon stocks, climate, and vegetation productivity. The terrestrial ecosystem CO2 budget, estimated using the annual NEE ensemble prediction, suggests the high-latitude region was on average an annual CO2 sink during 1990-2015, although uncertainty remains high.

Authors/Creators:Virkkala, Anna-Maria and Aalto, Juha and Rogers, Brendan M. and Tagesson, Torbern and Treat, Claire C. and Natali, Susan M. and Watts, Jennifer D. and Potter, Stefano and Lehtonen, Aleksi and Mauritz, Marguerite and Schuur, Edward A. G. and Kochendorfer, John and Zona, Donatella and Oechel, Walter and Kobayashi, Hideki and Humphreys, Elyn and Goeckede, Mathias and Iwata, Hiroki and Lafleur, Peter M. and Euskirchen, Eugenie S. and Bokhorst, Stef and Marushchak, Maija and Martikainen, Pertti J. and Elberling, Bo and Voigt, Carolina and Biasi, Christina and Sonnentag, Oliver and Parmentier, Frans-Jan W. and Ueyama, Masahito and Celis, Gerardo and St.Louis, Vincent L. and Emmerton, Craig A. and Peichl, Matthias and Chi, Jinshu and Järveoja, Järvi and Nilsson, Mats and Oberbauer, Steven F. and Torn, Margaret S. and Park, Sang-Jong and Dolman, Han and Mammarella, Ivan and Chae, Namyi and Poyatos, Rafael and Lopez-Blanco, Efren and Christensen, Torben Rojle and Kwon, Min Jung and Sachs, Torsten and Holl, David and Luoto, Miska
Title:Statistical upscaling of ecosystem CO2 fluxes across the terrestrial tundra and boreal domain: Regional patterns and uncertainties
Series Name/Journal:Global Change Biology
Year of publishing :2021
Volume:27
Page range:4040-4059
Number of Pages:21
Publisher:WILEY
ISSN:1354-1013
Language:English
Publication Type:Research article
Article category:Scientific peer reviewed
Version:Published version
Copyright:Creative Commons: Attribution 4.0
Full Text Status:Public
Subjects:(A) Swedish standard research categories 2011 > 1 Natural sciences > 106 Biological Sciences (Medical to be 3 and Agricultural to be 4) > Ecology
Keywords:Arctic, CO2 balance, empirical, greenhouse gas, land, permafrost, remote sensing
URN:NBN:urn:nbn:se:slu:epsilon-p-112545
Permanent URL:
http://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:slu:epsilon-p-112545
Additional ID:
Type of IDID
DOI10.1111/gcb.15659
Web of Science (WoS)000659453000001
ID Code:25505
Faculty:S - Faculty of Forest Sciences
Department:(S) > Dept. of Forest Ecology and Management
Deposited By: SLUpub Connector
Deposited On:27 Sep 2021 09:25
Metadata Last Modified:27 Sep 2021 09:31

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