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Can Tanzania's adaptation measures prevent future maize yield decline? A simulation study from Singida region

Volk, Johanna and Gornott, Christoph and Sieber, Stefan and Lana, Marcos (2021). Can Tanzania's adaptation measures prevent future maize yield decline? A simulation study from Singida region. Regional Environmental Change. 21 , 94
[Research article]

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Abstract

Cereal crop production in sub-Saharan Africa has not achieved the much-needed increase in yields to foster economic development and food security. Maize yields in the region's semi-arid agroecosystems are constrained by highly variable rainfall, which may be worsened by climate change. Thus, the Tanzanian government has prioritized agriculture as an adaptation sector in its intended nationally determined contribution, and crop management adjustments as a key investment area in its Agricultural Sector Development Programme. In this study, we investigated how future changes in maize yields under different climate scenarios can be countered by regional adjusted crop management and cultivar adaptation strategies. A crop model was used to simulate maize yields in the Singida region of Tanzania for the baseline period 1980-2012 and under three future climate projections for 2020-2060 and 2061-2099. Adaptation strategies to improve yields were full irrigation, deficit irrigation, mulch and nitrogen addition and another cultivar. According to our model results, increase in temperature is the main driver of future maize yield decline. Increased respiration and phenological development were associated with lower maize yields of 16% in 2020-2060 and 20% in 2061-2099 compared to the 1980-2012 baseline. Surprisingly, none of the management strategies significantly improved yields; however, a different maize variety that was tested as an alternative coping strategy performed better. This study suggests that investment in accessibility of improved varieties and investigation of maize traits that have the potential to perform well in a warmer future are better suited for sustaining maize production in the semi-arid region than adjustments in crop management.

Authors/Creators:Volk, Johanna and Gornott, Christoph and Sieber, Stefan and Lana, Marcos
Title:Can Tanzania's adaptation measures prevent future maize yield decline? A simulation study from Singida region
Series Name/Journal:Regional Environmental Change
Year of publishing :2021
Volume:21
Article number:94
Number of Pages:13
Publisher:SPRINGER HEIDELBERG
ISSN:1436-3798
Language:English
Publication Type:Research article
Article category:Scientific peer reviewed
Version:Published version
Copyright:Creative Commons: Attribution 4.0
Full Text Status:Public
Subjects:(A) Swedish standard research categories 2011 > 4 Agricultural Sciences > 401 Agricultural, Forestry and Fisheries > Agricultural Science
Keywords:Maize, Climate change, Adaptation, Model, Tanzania, NDC
URN:NBN:urn:nbn:se:slu:epsilon-p-113946
Permanent URL:
http://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:slu:epsilon-p-113946
Additional ID:
Type of IDID
DOI10.1007/s10113-021-01812-z
Web of Science (WoS)000700386400001
ID Code:25662
Faculty:NJ - Fakulteten för naturresurser och jordbruksvetenskap
Department:(NL, NJ) > Dept. of Crop Production Ecology
Deposited By: SLUpub Connector
Deposited On:14 Oct 2021 10:25
Metadata Last Modified:14 Oct 2021 10:31

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