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Associating Land Cover Changes with Patterns of Incidences of Climate-Sensitive Infections: An Example on Tick-Borne Diseases in the Nordic Area

Leibovici, Didier G. and Bylund, Helena and Björkman, Christer and Tokarevich, Nikolay and Thierfelder, Tomas and Evengård, Birgitta and Quegan, Shaun (2021). Associating Land Cover Changes with Patterns of Incidences of Climate-Sensitive Infections: An Example on Tick-Borne Diseases in the Nordic Area. International journal of environmental research and public health. 18 , 10963
[Research article]

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Abstract

Some of the climate-sensitive infections (CSIs) affecting humans are zoonotic vector-borne diseases, such as Lyme borreliosis (BOR) and tick-borne encephalitis (TBE), mostly linked to various species of ticks as vectors. Due to climate change, the geographical distribution of tick species, their hosts, and the prevalence of pathogens are likely to change. A recent increase in human incidences of these CSIs in the Nordic regions might indicate an expansion of the range of ticks and hosts, with vegetation changes acting as potential predictors linked to habitat suitability. In this paper, we study districts in Fennoscandia and Russia where incidences of BOR and TBE have steadily increased over the 1995–2015 period (defined as ’Well Increasing districts’). This selection is taken as a proxy for increasing the prevalence of tick-borne pathogens due to increased habitat suitability for ticks and hosts, thus simplifying the multiple factors that explain incidence variations. This approach allows vegetation types and strengths of correlation specific to the WI districts to be differentiated and compared with associations found over all districts. Land cover types and their changes found to be associated with increasing human disease incidence are described, indicating zones with potential future higher risk of these diseases. Combining vegetation cover and climate variables in regression models shows the interplay of biotic and abiotic factors linked to CSI incidences and identifies some differences between BOR and TBE. Regression model projections up until 2070 under different climate scenarios depict possible CSI progressions within the studied area and are consistent with the observed changes over the past 20 years.

Authors/Creators:Leibovici, Didier G. and Bylund, Helena and Björkman, Christer and Tokarevich, Nikolay and Thierfelder, Tomas and Evengård, Birgitta and Quegan, Shaun
Title:Associating Land Cover Changes with Patterns of Incidences of Climate-Sensitive Infections: An Example on Tick-Borne Diseases in the Nordic Area
Series Name/Journal:International journal of environmental research and public health
Year of publishing :2021
Volume:18
Article number:10963
Number of Pages:27
ISSN:1661-7827
Language:English
Publication Type:Research article
Article category:Scientific peer reviewed
Version:Published version
Copyright:Creative Commons: Attribution 4.0
Full Text Status:Public
Subjects:(A) Swedish standard research categories 2011 > 1 Natural sciences > 105 Earth and Related Environmental Sciences > Climate Research
(A) Swedish standard research categories 2011 > 3 Medical and Health Sciences > 303 Health Sciences > Public Health, Global Health, Social Medicine and Epidemiology
Keywords:climate-sensitive infection, vector-borne disease, tick-borne disease, climate change, land cover, vegetation type, Nordic, Fennoscandia
URN:NBN:urn:nbn:se:slu:epsilon-p-114020
Permanent URL:
http://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:slu:epsilon-p-114020
Additional ID:
Type of IDID
DOI10.3390/ijerph182010963
Otherhttps://www.mdpi.com/1660-4601/18/20/10963
ID Code:25873
Faculty:S - Faculty of Forest Sciences
NJ - Fakulteten för naturresurser och jordbruksvetenskap
Department:(NL, NJ) > Dept. of Ecology
(S) > Dept. of Ecology

(NL, NJ) > Dept. of Energy and Technology
Deposited By: SLUpub Connector
Deposited On:19 Oct 2021 11:25
Metadata Last Modified:19 Oct 2021 11:31

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