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Iterative scenarios for social-ecological systems

Herrmann, Dustin L. and Schwarz, Kirsten and Allen, Craig R. and Angeler, David and Eason, Tarsha and Garmestani, Ahjond (2021). Iterative scenarios for social-ecological systems. Ecology and Society. 26 , 8
[Research article]

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Managing social-ecological systems toward desirable regimes requires learning about the system being managed while preparing for many possible futures. Adaptive management (AM) and scenario planning (SP) are two systems management approaches that separately use learning to reduce uncertainties and employ planning to manage irreducible uncertainties, respectively. However, each of these approaches have limitations that confound management of social-ecological systems. Here, we introduce iterative scenarios (IS), a systems management approach that is a hybrid of the scopes and relationships to uncertainty and controllability of AM and SP that combines the "iterativeness" of AM and futures planning of SP. Iterative scenarios is appropriate for situations with high uncertainty about whether a management action will lead to intended outcomes, the desired benefits are numerous and cross-scale, and it is difficult to account for the social implications around the natural resource management options. The value of iterative scenarios is demonstrated by applying the approach to green infrastructure futures for a neighborhood in the city of Cleveland, Ohio, U.S., that had experienced long-term, systemic disinvestment. The Cleveland green infrastructure project was particularly well suited to the IS approach given that learning about environmental factors was necessary and achievable, but what would be socially desirable and possible was unknown. However, iterative scenarios is appropriate for many social-ecological systems where uncertainty is high as IS accommodates real-world complexity faced by management.

Authors/Creators:Herrmann, Dustin L. and Schwarz, Kirsten and Allen, Craig R. and Angeler, David and Eason, Tarsha and Garmestani, Ahjond
Title:Iterative scenarios for social-ecological systems
Series Name/Journal:Ecology and Society
Year of publishing :2021
Article number:8
Number of Pages:9
Publication Type:Research article
Article category:Scientific peer reviewed
Version:Published version
Copyright:Creative Commons: Attribution 4.0
Full Text Status:Public
Subjects:(A) Swedish standard research categories 2011 > 1 Natural sciences > 106 Biological Sciences (Medical to be 3 and Agricultural to be 4) > Ecology
(A) Swedish standard research categories 2011 > 4 Agricultural Sciences > 405 Other Agricultural Sciences > Fish and Wildlife Management
(A) Swedish standard research categories 2011 > 5 Social Sciences > 509 Other Social Sciences > Social Sciences Interdisciplinary (Peace and Conflict Research and Studies on Sustainable Society)
Keywords:adaptive management, futures, green infrastructure, iterative scenarios, scenario planning, social-ecological systems, structured learning
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Type of IDID
Alternative URL:https://www.ecologyandsociety.org/vol26/iss4/art8/
ID Code:25935
Faculty:NJ - Fakulteten för naturresurser och jordbruksvetenskap
Department:(NL, NJ) > Dept. of Aquatic Sciences and Assessment
Deposited By: SLUpub Connector
Deposited On:25 Oct 2021 04:25
Metadata Last Modified:25 Oct 2021 05:01

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