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High-resolution analysis of observed thermal growing season variability over northern Europe

Aalto, Juha and Pirinen, Pentti and Kauppi, Pekka E and Rantanen, Mika and Lussana, Cristian and Lyytikainen-Saarenmaa, Paivi and Gregow, Hilppa (2021). High-resolution analysis of observed thermal growing season variability over northern Europe. Climate Dynamics
[Research article]

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Abstract

Strong historical and predicted future warming over high-latitudes prompt significant effects on agricultural and forest ecosystems. Thus, there is an urgent need for spatially-detailed information of current thermal growing season (GS) conditions and their past changes. Here, we deployed a large network of weather stations, high-resolution geospatial environmental data and semi-parametric regression to model the spatial variation in multiple GS variables (i.e. beginning, end, length, degree day sum [GDDS, base temperature + 5 degrees C]) and their intra-annual variability and temporal trends in respect to geographical location, topography, water and forest cover, and urban land use variables over northern Europe. Our analyses revealed substantial spatial variability in average GS conditions (1990-2019) and consistent temporal trends (1950-2019). We showed that there have been significant changes in thermal GS towards earlier beginnings (on average 15 days over the study period), increased length (23 days) and GDDS (287 degrees C days). By using a spatial interpolation of weather station data to a regular grid we predicted current GS conditions at high resolution (100 m x 100 m) and with high accuracy (correlation >= 0.92 between observed and predicted mean GS values), whereas spatial variation in temporal trends and interannual variability were more demanding to predict. The spatial variation in GS variables was mostly driven by latitudinal and elevational gradients, albeit they were constrained by local scale variables. The proximity of sea and lakes, and high forest cover suppressed temporal trends and inter-annual variability potentially indicating local climate buffering. The produced high-resolution datasets showcased the diversity in thermal GS conditions and impacts of climate change over northern Europe. They are valuable in various forest management and ecosystem applications, and in adaptation to climate change.

Authors/Creators:Aalto, Juha and Pirinen, Pentti and Kauppi, Pekka E and Rantanen, Mika and Lussana, Cristian and Lyytikainen-Saarenmaa, Paivi and Gregow, Hilppa
Title:High-resolution analysis of observed thermal growing season variability over northern Europe
Series Name/Journal:Climate Dynamics
Year of publishing :2021
Number of Pages:17
Publisher:SPRINGER
ISSN:0930-7575
Language:English
Publication Type:Research article
Article category:Scientific peer reviewed
Version:Published version
Copyright:Creative Commons: Attribution 4.0
Full Text Status:Public
Subjects:(A) Swedish standard research categories 2011 > 1 Natural sciences > 105 Earth and Related Environmental Sciences > Climate Research
Keywords:Thermal growing season, Statistical modeling, Climate change, Generalized additive model, Local climate, GIS
URN:NBN:urn:nbn:se:slu:epsilon-p-113958
Permanent URL:
http://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:slu:epsilon-p-113958
Additional ID:
Type of IDID
DOI10.1007/s00382-021-05970-y
Web of Science (WoS)000701008500001
ID Code:26024
Faculty:S - Faculty of Forest Sciences
Department:(S) > Dept. of Forest Ecology and Management
Deposited By: SLUpub Connector
Deposited On:04 Nov 2021 15:29
Metadata Last Modified:04 Nov 2021 15:31

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