Home About Browse Search
Svenska


Validation of stock assessment methods: is it me or my model talking?

Kell, Laurence T. and Sharma, Rishi and Kitakado, Toshihide and Winker, Henning and Mosqueira, Iago and Cardinale, Massimiliano and Fu, Dan (2021). Validation of stock assessment methods: is it me or my model talking? ICES Journal of Marine Science. 78 , 2244-2255
[Research article]

[img] PDF
3MB

Abstract

The adoption of the Precautionary Approach requires providing advice that is robust to uncertainty. Therefore, when conducting stock assessment alternative, model structures and data sets are commonly considered. The primary diagnostics used to compare models are to examine residuals patterns to check goodness-of-fit and to conduct retrospective analysis to check the stability of estimates. However, residual patterns can be removed by adding more parameters than justified by the data, and retrospective patterns removed by ignoring the data. Therefore, neither alone can be used for validation, which requires assessing whether it is plausible that a system identical to the model generated the data. Therefore, we use hindcasting to estimate prediction skill, a measure of the accuracy of a predicted value unknown by the model relative to its observed value, to explore model misspecification and data conflicts. We compare alternative model structures based on integrated statistical and Bayesian state-space biomass dynamic models using, as an example, Indian Ocean yellowfin tuna. Validation is not a binary process (i.e. pass or fail) but a continuum; therefore, we discuss the use of prediction skill to identify alternative hypotheses, weight ensemble models and agree on reference sets of operating models when conducting Management Strategy Evaluation.

Authors/Creators:Kell, Laurence T. and Sharma, Rishi and Kitakado, Toshihide and Winker, Henning and Mosqueira, Iago and Cardinale, Massimiliano and Fu, Dan
Title:Validation of stock assessment methods: is it me or my model talking?
Series Name/Journal:ICES Journal of Marine Science
Year of publishing :2021
Volume:78
Page range:2244-2255
Number of Pages:12
Publisher:OXFORD UNIV PRESS
ISSN:1054-3139
Language:English
Publication Type:Research article
Article category:Scientific peer reviewed
Version:Published version
Copyright:Creative Commons: Attribution 4.0
Full Text Status:Public
Subjects:(A) Swedish standard research categories 2011 > 4 Agricultural Sciences > 401 Agricultural, Forestry and Fisheries > Fish and Aquacultural Science
Keywords:diagnostics, hindcast, prediction skill, retrospective analysis, stock assessment, validation
URN:NBN:urn:nbn:se:slu:epsilon-p-114247
Permanent URL:
http://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:slu:epsilon-p-114247
Additional ID:
Type of IDID
DOI10.1093/icesjms/fsab104
Web of Science (WoS)000705457300028
ID Code:26081
Faculty:NJ - Fakulteten för naturresurser och jordbruksvetenskap
Department:(NL, NJ) > Department of Aquatic Resources
Deposited By: SLUpub Connector
Deposited On:08 Nov 2021 14:25
Metadata Last Modified:08 Nov 2021 14:31

Repository Staff Only: item control page

Downloads

Downloads per year (since September 2012)

View more statistics

Downloads
Hits