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The future distribution of wetland birds breeding in Europe validated against observed changes in distribution

Soultan, Alaaeldin and Pavon-Jordan, Diego and Bradter, Ute and Sandercock, Brett K. and Hochachka, Wesley M. and Johnston, Alison and Brommer, Jon and Gaget, Elie and Keller, Verena and Knaus, Peter and Aghababyan, Karen and Maxhuni, Qenan and Vintchevski, Alexandre and Nagy, Károly and Raudonikis, Liutauras and Balmer, Dawn and Noble, David and Leitão, Domingos and Jostein Oien, Ingar and Shimmings, Paul and Sultanov, Elchin and Caffrey, Brian and Boyla, Kerem and Radisic, Dimitrije and Lindström, Åke and Velevski, Metodija and Pladevall, Clara and Brotons, Lluis and Karel, Šťastný and Rajković, Draženko Z and Chodkiewicz, Tomasz and Wilk, Tomasz and Szep, Tibor and van Turnhout, Chris and Foppen, Ruud and Burfield, Ian and Vikstrøm, Thomas and Dumbović Mazal, Vlatka and Eaton, Mark and Vorisek, Petr and Lehikoinen, Aleksi and Herrando, Sergi and Kuzmenko, Tatiana and Bauer, Hans-Günther and Kalyakin, Mikhail V. and Voltzit, Olga V. and Sjeničić, Jovica and Pärt, Tomas (2022). The future distribution of wetland birds breeding in Europe validated against observed changes in distribution. Environmental Research Letters. 17 :2 , 024025
[Research article]

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Abstract

Wetland bird species have been declining in population size worldwide as climate warming and land-use change affect their suitable habitats. We used species distribution models (SDMs) to predict changes in range dynamics for 64 non-passerine wetland birds breeding in Europe, including range size, position of centroid, and margins. We fitted the SDMs with data collected for the first European Breeding Bird Atlas and climate and land-use data to predict distributional changes over a century (the 1970s-2070s). The predicted annual changes were then compared to observed annual changes in range size and range centroid over a time period of 30 years using data from the second European Breeding Bird Atlas. Our models successfully predicted ca. 75% of the 64 bird species to contract their breeding range in the future, while the remaining species (mostly southerly breeding species) were predicted to expand their breeding ranges northward. The northern margins of southerly species and southern margins of northerly species, both, predicted to shift northward. Predicted changes in range size and shifts in range centroids were broadly positively associated with the observed changes, although some species deviated markedly from the predictions. The predicted average shift in core distributions was ca. 5 km yr(-1) towards the north (5% northeast, 45% north, and 40% northwest), compared to a slower observed average shift of ca. 3.9 km yr(-1). Predicted changes in range centroids were generally larger than observed changes, which suggests that bird distribution changes may lag behind environmental changes leading to 'climate debt'. We suggest that predictions of SDMs should be viewed as qualitative rather than quantitative outcomes, indicating that care should be taken concerning single species. Still, our results highlight the urgent need for management actions such as wetland creation and restoration to improve wetland birds' resilience to the expected environmental changes in the future.

Authors/Creators:Soultan, Alaaeldin and Pavon-Jordan, Diego and Bradter, Ute and Sandercock, Brett K. and Hochachka, Wesley M. and Johnston, Alison and Brommer, Jon and Gaget, Elie and Keller, Verena and Knaus, Peter and Aghababyan, Karen and Maxhuni, Qenan and Vintchevski, Alexandre and Nagy, Károly and Raudonikis, Liutauras and Balmer, Dawn and Noble, David and Leitão, Domingos and Jostein Oien, Ingar and Shimmings, Paul and Sultanov, Elchin and Caffrey, Brian and Boyla, Kerem and Radisic, Dimitrije and Lindström, Åke and Velevski, Metodija and Pladevall, Clara and Brotons, Lluis and Karel, Šťastný and Rajković, Draženko Z and Chodkiewicz, Tomasz and Wilk, Tomasz and Szep, Tibor and van Turnhout, Chris and Foppen, Ruud and Burfield, Ian and Vikstrøm, Thomas and Dumbović Mazal, Vlatka and Eaton, Mark and Vorisek, Petr and Lehikoinen, Aleksi and Herrando, Sergi and Kuzmenko, Tatiana and Bauer, Hans-Günther and Kalyakin, Mikhail V. and Voltzit, Olga V. and Sjeničić, Jovica and Pärt, Tomas
Title:The future distribution of wetland birds breeding in Europe validated against observed changes in distribution
Series Name/Journal:Environmental Research Letters
Year of publishing :2022
Volume:17
Number:2
Article number:024025
Number of Pages:12
Publisher:IOP Publishing Ltd
ISSN:1748-9326
Language:English
Publication Type:Research article
Article category:Scientific peer reviewed
Version:Published version
Copyright:Creative Commons: Attribution 4.0
Full Text Status:Public
Subjects:(A) Swedish standard research categories 2011 > 1 Natural sciences > 106 Biological Sciences (Medical to be 3 and Agricultural to be 4) > Ecology
Keywords:European Breeding Bird Atlas, breeding distributions, climate change, land-use change, species distribution models
URN:NBN:urn:nbn:se:slu:epsilon-p-116434
Permanent URL:
http://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:slu:epsilon-p-116434
Additional ID:
Type of IDID
DOI10.1088/1748-9326/ac4ebe
Web of Science (WoS)000753626800001
ID Code:27417
Faculty:NJ - Fakulteten för naturresurser och jordbruksvetenskap
Department:(NL, NJ) > Dept. of Ecology
(S) > Dept. of Ecology
Deposited By: SLUpub Connector
Deposited On:23 Mar 2022 08:27
Metadata Last Modified:23 Mar 2022 08:31

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