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Decomposing the spatial and temporal effects of climate on bird populations in northern European mountains

Bradter, Ute and Johnston, Alison and Hochachka, Wesley M. and Soultan, Alaaeldin and Brommer, Jon E. and Gaget, Elie and Kalas, John Atle and Lehikoinen, Aleksi and Lindstrom, Ake and Piirainen, Sirke and Pavon-jordan, Diego and Pärt, Tomas and Sandercock, Brett K. and Øien, Ingar Jostein (2022). Decomposing the spatial and temporal effects of climate on bird populations in northern European mountains. Global Change Biology
[Research article]

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Abstract

The relationships between species abundance or occurrence versus spatial variation in climate are commonly used in species distribution models to forecast future distributions. Under "space-for-time substitution", the effects of climate variation on species are assumed to be equivalent in both space and time. Two unresolved issues of space-for-time substitution are the time period for species' responses and also the relative contributions of rapid- versus slow reactions in shaping spatial and temporal responses to climate change. To test the assumption of equivalence, we used a new approach of climate decomposition to separate variation in temperature and precipitation in Fennoscandia into spatial, temporal, and spatiotemporal components over a 23-year period (1996-2018). We compiled information on land cover, topography, and six components of climate for 1756 fixed route surveys, and we modeled annual counts of 39 bird species breeding in the mountains of Fennoscandia. Local abundance of breeding birds was associated with the spatial components of climate as expected, but the temporal and spatiotemporal climatic variation from the current and previous breeding seasons were also important. The directions of the effects of the three climate components differed within and among species, suggesting that species can respond both rapidly and slowly to climate variation and that the responses represent different ecological processes. Thus, the assumption of equivalent species' response to spatial and temporal variation in climate was seldom met in our study system. Consequently, for the majority of our species, space-for-time substitution may only be applicable once the slow species' responses to a changing climate have occurred, whereas forecasts for the near future need to accommodate the temporal components of climate variation. However, appropriate forecast horizons for space-for-time substitution are rarely considered and may be difficult to reliably identify. Accurately predicting change is challenging because multiple ecological processes affect species distributions at different temporal scales.

Authors/Creators:Bradter, Ute and Johnston, Alison and Hochachka, Wesley M. and Soultan, Alaaeldin and Brommer, Jon E. and Gaget, Elie and Kalas, John Atle and Lehikoinen, Aleksi and Lindstrom, Ake and Piirainen, Sirke and Pavon-jordan, Diego and Pärt, Tomas and Sandercock, Brett K. and Øien, Ingar Jostein
Title:Decomposing the spatial and temporal effects of climate on bird populations in northern European mountains
Series Name/Journal:Global Change Biology
Year of publishing :2022
Number of Pages:19
Publisher:WILEY
ISSN:1354-1013
Language:English
Publication Type:Research article
Article category:Scientific peer reviewed
Version:Published version
Copyright:Creative Commons: Attribution 4.0
Full Text Status:Public
Subjects:(A) Swedish standard research categories 2011 > 1 Natural sciences > 105 Earth and Related Environmental Sciences > Climate Research
(A) Swedish standard research categories 2011 > 1 Natural sciences > 105 Earth and Related Environmental Sciences > Environmental Sciences (social aspects to be 507)
(A) Swedish standard research categories 2011 > 1 Natural sciences > 106 Biological Sciences (Medical to be 3 and Agricultural to be 4) > Ecology
Keywords:anticipatory forecasts, climate decomposition, dynamic forecasts, forecast horizon, space-for-time substitution, spatiotemporal forecasts, spatiotemporal pattern, species distribution models, static forecasts
URN:NBN:urn:nbn:se:slu:epsilon-p-118746
Permanent URL:
http://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:slu:epsilon-p-118746
Additional ID:
Type of IDID
DOI10.1111/gcb.16355
Web of Science (WoS)000840391200001
ID Code:28804
Faculty:NJ - Fakulteten för naturresurser och jordbruksvetenskap
Department:(NL, NJ) > Dept. of Ecology
(S) > Dept. of Ecology
Deposited By: SLUpub Connector
Deposited On:08 Sep 2022 13:31
Metadata Last Modified:08 Sep 2022 13:41

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