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A dynamic simulation model of land-use, population, and rural livelihoods in the central Rift Valley of Ethiopia

Garedew, Efrem and Sandewall, Mats and Söderberg, Ulf (2012). A dynamic simulation model of land-use, population, and rural livelihoods in the central Rift Valley of Ethiopia. Environmental management. 49:1, 151-162
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Official URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s00267-011-9783-4

Abstract

The dynamic interactions between society and land resources have to be taken into account when planning and managing natural resources. A computer model, using STELLA software, was developed through active participation of purposively selected farm households from different wealth groups, age groups and gender within a rural community and some members of Kebelle council. The aim of the modeling was to study the perceived changes in land-use, population and livelihoods over the next 30 years and to improve our understanding of the interactions among them. The modeling output is characterized by rapid population growth, declining farm size and household incomes, deteriorating woody vegetation cover and worsening land degradation if current conditions remain. However, through integrated intervention strategies (including forest increase, micro-finance, family planning, health and education) the woody vegetation cover is likely to increase in the landscape, population growth is likely to slow down and households’ income is likely to improve. A validation assessment of the simulation model based on historical data on land-use and population from 1973 to 2006 showed that the model is relatively robust. We conclude that as a supporting tool, the simulation model can contribute to the decision making process.

Authors/Creators:Garedew, Efrem and Sandewall, Mats and Söderberg, Ulf
Title:A dynamic simulation model of land-use, population, and rural livelihoods in the central Rift Valley of Ethiopia
Series/Journal:Environmental management (1432-1009)
Year of publishing :January 2012
Volume:49
Number:1
Page range:151-162
Publisher:Springer-Verlag
ISSN:1432-1009
Language:English
Publication Type:Journal article
Refereed:Yes
Article category:Scientific peer reviewed
Version:Accepted version
Full Text Status:Public
Agris subject categories.:E Economics, development, and rural sociology > E11 Land economics and policies
E Economics, development, and rural sociology > E51 Rural population
U Auxiliary disciplines > U10 Mathematical and statistical methods
Subjects:(A) Swedish standard research categories 2011 > 4 Agricultural Sciences > 401 Agricultural, Forestry and Fisheries > Forest Science
Keywords:Forest increase, Household income, Land-use, Land degradation, STELLA software
URN:NBN:urn:nbn:se:slu:epsilon-e-792
Permanent URL:
http://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:slu:epsilon-e-792
Additional ID:
Type of IDID
DOI10.1007/s00267-011-9783-4
ID Code:9345
Department:(S) > Dept. of Forest Resource Management
(NL, NJ) > Dept. of Forest Resource Management
External funders:Swedish International Development Cooperation Agency
Deposited By: Skogsbiblioteket Umeå
Deposited On:17 Dec 2012 15:54
Metadata Last Modified:02 Dec 2014 10:54

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