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Can Life History Predict the Effect of Demographic Stochasticity on Extinction Risk?

Jeppsson, Tobias and Forslund, Pär (2012). Can Life History Predict the Effect of Demographic Stochasticity on Extinction Risk? The American naturalist. 179 :6 , 706-720
[Research article]

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Official URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1086/665696


Demographic stochasticity is important in determining extinction risks of small populations, but it is largely unknown how its effect depends on the life histories of species. We modeled effects of demographic stochasticity on extinction risk in a broad range of generalized life histories, using matrix models and branching processes. Extinction risks of life histories varied greatly in their sensitivity to demographic stochasticity. Comparing life histories, extinction risk generally increased with increasing fecundity and decreased with higher ages of maturation. Effects of adult survival depended on age of maturation. At lower ages of maturation, extinction risk peaked at intermediate levels of adult survival, but it increased along with adult survival at higher ages of maturation. These differences were largely explained by differences in sensitivities of population growth to perturbations of life history traits. Juvenile survival rate contributed most to total demographic variance in the majority of life histories. Our general results confirmed earlier findings, suggesting that empirical patterns can be explained by a relatively simple model. Thus, basic life history information can be used to assign life history-specific sensitivity to demographic stochasticity. This is of great value when assessing the vulnerability of small populations.

Authors/Creators:Jeppsson, Tobias and Forslund, Pär
Title:Can Life History Predict the Effect of Demographic Stochasticity on Extinction Risk?
Series Name/Journal:The American naturalist
Year of publishing :27 April 2012
Page range:706-720
Publisher:The University of Chicago Press
Publication Type:Research article
Article category:Scientific peer reviewed
Version:Accepted version
Copyright:Creative Commons: Attribution-Noncommercial-Share Alike 3.0
Full Text Status:Public
Subjects:(A) Swedish standard research categories 2011 > 1 Natural sciences > 106 Biological Sciences (Medical to be 3 and Agricultural to be 4) > Ecology
Keywords:Extinction risk, Demographic stochasticity, matrix model, branching process, demographic variance, population dynamics, life history
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Type of IDID
Alternative URL:http://www.jstor.org/stable/10.1086/665696
ID Code:9464
Department:(NL, NJ) > Dept. of Ecology
(S) > Dept. of Ecology
Deposited By: Tobias Jeppsson
Deposited On:01 Mar 2013 09:04
Metadata Last Modified:02 Dec 2014 10:55

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