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Modelling climate change impacts on pesticide leaching

uncertainty and scenario analysis at field and regional scales

Steffens, Karin (2015). Modelling climate change impacts on pesticide leaching. Diss. (sammanfattning/summary) Uppsala : Sveriges lantbruksuniv., Acta Universitatis agriculturae Sueciae, 1652-6880 ; 2015:35
ISBN 978-91-576-8268-0
eISBN 978-91-576-8269-7
[Doctoral thesis]

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Abstract

Climate change projections for Sweden indicate increases in both temperature and precipitation. In a warmer and wetter climate, weed and pest pressures are likely to increase, which might in turn trigger an increased use of pesticides. This thesis analysed potential impacts of climate change on pesticide losses from Swedish arable soils under present (1970-1999) and future (2070-2099) climate conditions. The pesticide fate model MACRO was used to evaluate the direct effects of climate change on pesticide losses to tile-drains at the field scale accounting for uncertainties related to model structure (i.e. the description of temperature dependent processes), parameters and climate input data. At the regional scale, MACRO-SE was used to assess the direct and the indirect effects of climate change (i.e. changes in cropping patterns and herbicide use) on the leaching of herbicides towards groundwater in southern Sweden.

At the field scale, the results showed that differences in model structures affected predictions of pesticide losses under climate change, despite large parameter uncertainty. The effect of climate input uncertainty was more important than the effect of parameter uncertainty for predicted changes in pesticide losses between present and future climates, while it was the opposite for simulated absolute pesticide losses. The direction and magnitude of predicted changes in pesticide losses depended on pesticide properties, application season and climate scenario. In the regional scale study, the area at risk of groundwater contamination was only slightly affected by direct effects of climate change, whereas the area at risk doubled due to the indirect effects of climate change that were included in the analysis.

The main conclusions are that (1) the relative importance of different sources of uncertainty depends on the pesticide properties, application season and whether the focus is on absolute losses or predicted changes, (2) ensembles of climate scenarios are necessary for robust assessments and (3) indirect effects need to be considered alongside the direct effects as predictions can be significantly affected. Despite large uncertainties, this thesis highlights the need to strengthen policies, to adopt improved mitigation measures and to implement management strategies that will limit pesticide use and minimize the risks of contamination of ground- and surface waters.

Authors/Creators:Steffens, Karin
Title:Modelling climate change impacts on pesticide leaching
Subtitle:uncertainty and scenario analysis at field and regional scales
Series/Journal:Acta Universitatis agriculturae Sueciae (1652-6880)
Year of publishing :2015
Depositing date:26 March 2015
Volume:2015:35
Number of Pages:96
Papers/manuscripts:
NumberReferences
ISteffens, K., M. Larsbo, J. Moeys, N. Jarvis, and E. Lewan (2013). Predicting pesticide leaching under climate change: importance of model structure and parameter uncertainty. Agriculture, Ecosystems and Environment 172, 24-34.
IISteffens, K., M. Larsbo, J. Moeys, E. Kjellström, N. Jarvis, and E. Lewan (2014). Modelling pesticide leaching under climate change: parameter vs. climate input uncertainty. Hydrology and Earth System Sciences 18, 479-491.
IIISteffens, K., N. Jarvis, E. Lewan, B. Lindström, J. Kreuger, E. Kjellström, J. Moeys (2015). Direct and indirect effects of climate change on herbicide leaching – a regional scale assessment in Sweden. Science of the Total Environment 514, 239-249.
Place of Publication:Uppsala
Publisher:Department of Soil and Environment, Swedish University of Agricultural Sciences
ISBN for printed version:978-91-576-8268-0
ISBN for electronic version:978-91-576-8269-7
ISSN:1652-6880
Language:English
Publication Type:Doctoral thesis
Full Text Status:Public
Agris subject categories.:P Natural resources > P33 Soil chemistry and physics
U Auxiliary disciplines > U10 Mathematical and statistical methods
Subjects:(A) Swedish standard research categories 2011 > 1 Natural sciences > 105 Earth and Related Environmental Sciences > Climate Research
(A) Swedish standard research categories 2011 > 1 Natural sciences > 105 Earth and Related Environmental Sciences > Environmental Sciences (social aspects to be 507)
(A) Swedish standard research categories 2011 > 1 Natural sciences > 105 Earth and Related Environmental Sciences > Geosciences, Multidisciplinary
(A) Swedish standard research categories 2011 > 4 Agricultural Sciences > 401 Agricultural, Forestry and Fisheries > Soil Science
(A) Swedish standard research categories 2011 > 4 Agricultural Sciences > 405 Other Agricultural Sciences > Environmental Sciences related to Agriculture and Land-use
Agrovoc terms:pesticides, arable soils, leaching, climatic change, soil water movement, soil transport processes, environmental impact, forecasting, statistical uncertainty, models
Keywords:soil, water, pesticide, modelling, MACRO, climate change, uncertainty, ensemble modelling, direct effects, indirect effects
URN:NBN:urn:nbn:se:slu:epsilon-e-2515
Permanent URL:
http://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:slu:epsilon-e-2515
ID Code:12001
Faculty:NJ - Fakulteten för naturresurser och jordbruksvetenskap
Department:(NL, NJ) > Dept. of Soil and Environment
(S) > Dept. of Soil and Environment
Deposited By: Karin Steffens
Deposited On:26 Mar 2015 13:37
Metadata Last Modified:06 Feb 2016 06:49

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