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Food security outcomes in agricultural systems models: Case examples and priority information needs

Nicholson, Charles F and Stephens, Emma C and Kopainsky, Birgit and Thornton, Philip K. and Jones, Andrew D. and Parsons, David and Garrett, James (2021). Food security outcomes in agricultural systems models: Case examples and priority information needs. Agricultural Systems. 188 , 103030
[Research article]

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Abstract

Analyses of food security with agricultural systems models often focus on indicators of food availability, with limited treatment of the other three dimensions: food access, stability and utilization. We illustrate how three indicators of access (food consumption expenditures, a food insecurity scale and dietary diversity) and their stability can be incorporated into a dynamic household-level model of a maize-based production system in the Kenya highlands and a dynamic regional model of sheep production and marketing in Mexico. Although stylized due to limits on empirical evidence, the analyses suggest that inclusion of multiple access indicators can provide insights because the indicators respond differently to production shocks, demand growth and programs providing production subsidies. We also illustrate how to examine stability of food security outcomes in response to shocks using metrics of hardness (ability to withstand shocks) and elasticity (ability to return to previous conditions). The data required for more widespread empirical implementation of these methods include measurement—preferably at frequent intervals over time—of food access indicators, but also their determinants and linkages to outcomes in agricultural systems models. Analyses of food access and stability will be most valuable for assessments of food security impacts of climate change, when food systems are undergoing transformative change and to identify priority interventions and target audiences.

Authors/Creators:Nicholson, Charles F and Stephens, Emma C and Kopainsky, Birgit and Thornton, Philip K. and Jones, Andrew D. and Parsons, David and Garrett, James
Title:Food security outcomes in agricultural systems models: Case examples and priority information needs
Series Name/Journal:Agricultural Systems
Year of publishing :2021
Volume:188
Article number:103030
Number of Pages:10
ISSN:0308-521X
Language:English
Publication Type:Research article
Article category:Scientific peer reviewed
Version:Published version
Copyright:Creative Commons: Attribution 4.0
Full Text Status:Public
Subjects:(A) Swedish standard research categories 2011 > 4 Agricultural Sciences > 401 Agricultural, Forestry and Fisheries > Agricultural Science
Keywords:Food security, Agricultural systems models, Food access, Stability
URN:NBN:urn:nbn:se:slu:epsilon-p-111469
Permanent URL:
http://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:slu:epsilon-p-111469
Additional ID:
Type of IDID
DOI10.1016/j.agsy.2020.103030
Web of Science (WoS)000649431800007
ID Code:24499
Faculty:NJ - Fakulteten för naturresurser och jordbruksvetenskap
Department:(NL, NJ) > Dept. of Agricultural Research for Northern Sweden
(VH) > Dept. of Agricultural Research for Northern Sweden
Deposited By: SLUpub Connector
Deposited On:10 Jun 2021 13:43
Metadata Last Modified:10 Jun 2021 13:51

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